I never thought it would be the Eagles. I always thought it would be somebody else. We christened the 07 Patriots as a Dream Team, a prediction that they lived up to for 18 out of the 19 games they played. They looked, acted, and felt like the typical dream team. The 07 Patriots assembled what might be considered the best offense in the history of the NFL. Brady,Moss,Welker, and Maroney are some of the most recognizable names from that offense. Cameras would zoom in for close-ups of the opposing defense when the Pats were ahead by three touchdowns and the look on each defender's face said the exact same thing "We can't stop these guys". Not only did those Pats play like a dream team, they felt like a dream team as well. They were hated by anybody who wasn't a fan of them (this role is now held by the Jets and Steelers). They went through a scandal that got blown out of proportion. Everybody wondered if somebody could beat them. And finally, somebody did. The point is, the Patriots felt like they were destined to have a Dream Team some day. Every Pats fan knew that if Brady got decent receivers, he could do amazing things. And he did. All of those elements combined made the Patriots the Miami Heat of the NFL. And I absolutely despised them. What does this have to do with the Eagles? Flash forward (What is the opposite of flashback? Flash forward? Un-flashback? I'm so confused.) to the present day. The Eagles pull off one of the best offseasons in recent memory. They swoop in and outwork the Jets for star cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. Over the coming days, the Eagles sign Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins to shore up holes on their defensive line. Star wide receiver DeSean Jackson ends his holdout. Suddenly, this team starts looking good. A little too good. Some talk of "Dream Team" and "Miami Heat of the NFL" starts getting floated around. Cowboys defensive coordinator Buddy Ryan (the brother of Jets coach Jabba the Hutt [real name, Rex Ryan]) took shots at the Eagles, calling them the all-hype team among other things. To be fair, the general public created most of that hype themselves. But the Eagles feel too likable to be a dream team. Star quarterback Michael Vick is a great story of how people can change and get a second chance in life. Nnamdi Asomugha won the NFL's humanitarian award multiple times. And the coach, Andy Reid, looks like the uncle that always falls asleep on the couch at Thanksgiving. Let's break this team down:
On the surface, they're the dream team. In my opinion, this year's Eagles are a more complete team than the 07 Patriots or the 85 Bears. Not necessarily better, but more complete. The 85 Bears didn't have a passing game, so you knew they were going to run it with Walter Payton when they could. The 07 Patriots had an underrated defense, but still only an average one. If you were a team that could pound the ball, take time off the clock, and convert third downs when they mattered (like the Giants) then the Pats were beatable as long as you didn't do anything stupid. The Eagles have few, if any, such weaknesses. Their weakness to the run is offset by their historic strength against the pass. Their only weakness that isn't compensated for is their inept coach, who thinks that it's great fun to run passing plays on 3rd and 1. The Eagles are complete. The Eagles have a great collection of talent on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have a secondary that can be considered the best ever. And the Eagles will not win the Super Bowl.
What? No Super Bowl? After all, that prediction seems contrary to everything I just told you. Let me explain. ESPN sportswriter Bill Simmons (one of the funniest writers on ESPN and registered shameless homer) received an idea from a fan about something called the Ewing Theory. This theory centered around the fact that when teams lose seemingly important players that have never won anything and everybody immediately writes them off for the next year, they inexplicably do well. This theory has manifested itself to some extent with the Eagles after losing Donovan McNabb last year. In my years of watching sports, I have also found the opposite to be true. I call it the Heat Theory (after the most obvious example of it). It's the opposite of the Ewing Theory. This theory is based on the fact that teams who are slated as heavy favorites or locks to win their respective league's championship long before the season ends often fall short. Examples in recent years include the 04 Yankees, the 07 Patriots, and the 2010 Miami Heat. An example of this theory happened in the NFC East last year, when the Dallas Cowboys season went up in flames after months of NFL experts predicting that this was their year. Inexplicable, right? Let's take a closer look. The Cowboys never had anybody on their team that won anything (unless you count Tony Romo's Choking Man award.). The Cowboys were largely a veteran team that was getting older (just to clarify, getting older for a veteran team is never good. It's great if you're a team like the Tampa Bay Bucs that has not yet reached your peak. Otherwise, it's pretty bad.) The Cowboys had changed nothing from the previous year when a quarterback who's ears still hurt from the Big Bang knocked them out of the playoffs. Taken as a whole, anybody who digged a little deeper than the impressive stats that were displayed in Sports Illustrated would find it hard to take the Cowboys seriously. And they would have been right. The scenario that played out with the Cowboys shares some common themes with the Eagles this year. The Eagles don't have people who have won significant things or have even been close to winning significant things. Only one important player on the whole roster (Asante Samuel) has ever been to a Super Bowl. This is especially important on a young team like the Eagles. This element isn't as vital on a veteran team that hasn't been there before but kind of instinctively knows how to deal with the pressure. The Eagles are not that team. This brings me to my second point; the pressure on this team is immense. It's Super Bowl or bust in the city where athletes are built up and busted down in a matter of days. Not only that, but some of the toughest teams in the league are gunning for the Eagles. The Giants (twice), the Jets, the Patriots, the Cowboys (twice), the Bears, and the Falcons will all get their shot at the Eagles. This Eagles team needs to experience "getting there" first before they experience the feeling of winning it all. For those who say that the Eagles already "got there" with the two wild card losses, no they didn't. Wild card is not close enough to where the Eagles are expected to go. The last time the Eagles came close was in 2008, and the 2011 Eagles are radically different from the 2008 Eagles. And then there's Andy Reid. Look at the four coaches who made it to the AFC/NFC Championship games last year. Rex Ryan, Mike Tomlin, Mike McCarthy, and Lovie Smith. They all gave you the impression that they knew what they were doing. Sure, McCarthy might have called some questionable timeouts (and that's an understatement), but he always gave you the impression that he was in control. Rex Ryan made some bad challenges during the season, but he also gave you the impression that he knew what he was doing. He also might have eaten a small piece of the Empire State Building. We'll never know for sure (Just to clarify; I am a huge Jets fan. I love Rex Ryan. But he's too much of an easy target to not joke about him. Let me state on the record that I will always like Rex Ryan for turning a terrible Jet defense in to the best in the league, establishing the team's identity as a smashmouth trash-talking team that is strong up front, and for giving the Jets an attitude that hasn't been seen since Bill Parcells. I will always respect him for that. After experiencing the Mangini era, we would have taken anybody that showed undeniable evidence of a pulse). So yeah. All of these coaches knew what they were doing and always looked like they had a plan. Now look at Andy Reid. His team had unfixed problems with short yardage situations for 2 years. For two years. During the 2008 and 2009 seasons, the Eagles repeatedly came up short on third downs, particularly within the red zone. For one of those seasons, he had Michael Vick. No team that has Michael Vick should have trouble in short yardage scenarios unless they're starting me at center. He's called more bad timeouts than McCarthy, more head scratching plays than Mangini, and more unspoken friction with McNabb than most people think. Flash forward to this year. Eagles-Packers. NFC Championship Game. The game is on the line. 4th and 3 from the Packers 4. 8 seconds left on the clock. Eagles need a touchdown to win. Do I trust Andy Reid to call the right play? Not in my lifetime. In a nutshell, the Eagles aren't winning the Super Bowl because the intangibles just aren't there. I know that this is a cliche phrase, but this team does not know how to win. But the great thing about football is that anything can happen. And although I don't see the Eagles winning it this year (although they are heavy favorites in my book for the 2012/2013/2014 Super Bowls if things progress as planned with this team), they certainly have the talent to surprise me. You expect the unexpected in the NFL. And as long as this still holds true, that's enough for me.
- Quarterback: All set here. Michael Vick is arguably the best quarterback in the league. Vick is an accurate passer that also happens to be speedier than most running backs. He's an original prototype that hasn't been seen before in the NFL and it will probably be a long time before it is seen again. Another year of greatness just to prove that year one wasn't a fluke would be nice though. The Eagles also locked down Vince Young in free agency. He should provide a suitable backup in place of Kevin Kolb.
- Running Back: LeSean McCoy is a developing running back. He showed promise last year and is only going to get better. McCoy isn't the speediest back, but he makes people miss. His toughness is an underrated part of his game and he can always pick up the first down on those third and 1 scenarios that always hindered the Eagles in previous years. Ronnie Brown also signed on to split time with LeSean McCoy. Brown is another back that is better than a lot of people think. It will be interesting to see how Andy Reid utilizes them.
- Wide Receiver: The number 1 wide receiver position is filled by DeSean Jackson, one of the most explosive wide receivers in the NFL and a shameless showboat. The number 2 receiver opposite Jackson is Jeremy Maclin. Maclin caught 10 touchdown passes last year and really benefits from the constant attention that must be paid to Jackson. Other decent wide receivers such as Jason Avant and Riley Cooper round out one of the deepest receiving corps in the NFL. At tight end, Brent Celek is everything you'd ever want. A good blocker to create daylight for McCoy. A reliable pass catcher. A big target in the red zone that can get open. The Eagles have weapons. And then some.
- Offensive Line: Not bad. The center and right guard positions could be shored up (ESPN lists the starters at these positions to be Mike McGlynn and Danny Watkins. If Mike McGlynn and Danny Watkins are even being considered for a starting role on your O-line, then something has gone terribly wrong). The other three positions are OK. Winston Justice, Jason Peters, and Todd Herremans anchor a strong left side of the line. Fortunately, Michael Vick is the most mobile quarterback in history, so he does not need a great offensive line.
- Defensive Line: Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin should really help on the D-line. The Eagles run a 4-3 defense, so the defensive line are more important than the linebackers. The edge rush is there, but the inside run help is not. If the Eagles have one weakness this year, it's probably going to be that they can't stop the run. Their starting defensive tackles (Mike Patterson and Antonio Dixon) are average and their linebackers are pretty bad. Overall, I would give the defensive line a B. Great on the outside, not so great on the inside.
- Linebackers: This is the only glaring weakness of the Philadelphia Eagles. The loss of Stewart Bradley really hurt this linebacking corps. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Eagles experiment with somebody like Juqua Parker at linebacker. Something obviously needs to be done, because the order of linebackers (in order of overall value to the defense) goes something like this; Erne Sims, Moise Fokou; Uh-oh.
- Secondary: This might be one of the best secondaries in the history of football. The safeties are only average, but that does not matter when you have the depth at corner that the Eagles do. Nnamdi Asomugha eliminates the number 1 receiver of opposing teams. Most quarterbacks respect Asomugha so much that they simply don't throw to him. Since opposing quarterbacks don't want to throw the ball towards Asomugha, they have no choice but to throw it at Asante Samuel or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Samuel and Rodgers-Cromartie are two of the best playmakers at the position in the whole league, and they will get plenty of opportunities to come up big this season.
On the surface, they're the dream team. In my opinion, this year's Eagles are a more complete team than the 07 Patriots or the 85 Bears. Not necessarily better, but more complete. The 85 Bears didn't have a passing game, so you knew they were going to run it with Walter Payton when they could. The 07 Patriots had an underrated defense, but still only an average one. If you were a team that could pound the ball, take time off the clock, and convert third downs when they mattered (like the Giants) then the Pats were beatable as long as you didn't do anything stupid. The Eagles have few, if any, such weaknesses. Their weakness to the run is offset by their historic strength against the pass. Their only weakness that isn't compensated for is their inept coach, who thinks that it's great fun to run passing plays on 3rd and 1. The Eagles are complete. The Eagles have a great collection of talent on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have a secondary that can be considered the best ever. And the Eagles will not win the Super Bowl.
What? No Super Bowl? After all, that prediction seems contrary to everything I just told you. Let me explain. ESPN sportswriter Bill Simmons (one of the funniest writers on ESPN and registered shameless homer) received an idea from a fan about something called the Ewing Theory. This theory centered around the fact that when teams lose seemingly important players that have never won anything and everybody immediately writes them off for the next year, they inexplicably do well. This theory has manifested itself to some extent with the Eagles after losing Donovan McNabb last year. In my years of watching sports, I have also found the opposite to be true. I call it the Heat Theory (after the most obvious example of it). It's the opposite of the Ewing Theory. This theory is based on the fact that teams who are slated as heavy favorites or locks to win their respective league's championship long before the season ends often fall short. Examples in recent years include the 04 Yankees, the 07 Patriots, and the 2010 Miami Heat. An example of this theory happened in the NFC East last year, when the Dallas Cowboys season went up in flames after months of NFL experts predicting that this was their year. Inexplicable, right? Let's take a closer look. The Cowboys never had anybody on their team that won anything (unless you count Tony Romo's Choking Man award.). The Cowboys were largely a veteran team that was getting older (just to clarify, getting older for a veteran team is never good. It's great if you're a team like the Tampa Bay Bucs that has not yet reached your peak. Otherwise, it's pretty bad.) The Cowboys had changed nothing from the previous year when a quarterback who's ears still hurt from the Big Bang knocked them out of the playoffs. Taken as a whole, anybody who digged a little deeper than the impressive stats that were displayed in Sports Illustrated would find it hard to take the Cowboys seriously. And they would have been right. The scenario that played out with the Cowboys shares some common themes with the Eagles this year. The Eagles don't have people who have won significant things or have even been close to winning significant things. Only one important player on the whole roster (Asante Samuel) has ever been to a Super Bowl. This is especially important on a young team like the Eagles. This element isn't as vital on a veteran team that hasn't been there before but kind of instinctively knows how to deal with the pressure. The Eagles are not that team. This brings me to my second point; the pressure on this team is immense. It's Super Bowl or bust in the city where athletes are built up and busted down in a matter of days. Not only that, but some of the toughest teams in the league are gunning for the Eagles. The Giants (twice), the Jets, the Patriots, the Cowboys (twice), the Bears, and the Falcons will all get their shot at the Eagles. This Eagles team needs to experience "getting there" first before they experience the feeling of winning it all. For those who say that the Eagles already "got there" with the two wild card losses, no they didn't. Wild card is not close enough to where the Eagles are expected to go. The last time the Eagles came close was in 2008, and the 2011 Eagles are radically different from the 2008 Eagles. And then there's Andy Reid. Look at the four coaches who made it to the AFC/NFC Championship games last year. Rex Ryan, Mike Tomlin, Mike McCarthy, and Lovie Smith. They all gave you the impression that they knew what they were doing. Sure, McCarthy might have called some questionable timeouts (and that's an understatement), but he always gave you the impression that he was in control. Rex Ryan made some bad challenges during the season, but he also gave you the impression that he knew what he was doing. He also might have eaten a small piece of the Empire State Building. We'll never know for sure (Just to clarify; I am a huge Jets fan. I love Rex Ryan. But he's too much of an easy target to not joke about him. Let me state on the record that I will always like Rex Ryan for turning a terrible Jet defense in to the best in the league, establishing the team's identity as a smashmouth trash-talking team that is strong up front, and for giving the Jets an attitude that hasn't been seen since Bill Parcells. I will always respect him for that. After experiencing the Mangini era, we would have taken anybody that showed undeniable evidence of a pulse). So yeah. All of these coaches knew what they were doing and always looked like they had a plan. Now look at Andy Reid. His team had unfixed problems with short yardage situations for 2 years. For two years. During the 2008 and 2009 seasons, the Eagles repeatedly came up short on third downs, particularly within the red zone. For one of those seasons, he had Michael Vick. No team that has Michael Vick should have trouble in short yardage scenarios unless they're starting me at center. He's called more bad timeouts than McCarthy, more head scratching plays than Mangini, and more unspoken friction with McNabb than most people think. Flash forward to this year. Eagles-Packers. NFC Championship Game. The game is on the line. 4th and 3 from the Packers 4. 8 seconds left on the clock. Eagles need a touchdown to win. Do I trust Andy Reid to call the right play? Not in my lifetime. In a nutshell, the Eagles aren't winning the Super Bowl because the intangibles just aren't there. I know that this is a cliche phrase, but this team does not know how to win. But the great thing about football is that anything can happen. And although I don't see the Eagles winning it this year (although they are heavy favorites in my book for the 2012/2013/2014 Super Bowls if things progress as planned with this team), they certainly have the talent to surprise me. You expect the unexpected in the NFL. And as long as this still holds true, that's enough for me.
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