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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

It's the Free Agent Pool. Jump In It

130-odd days. 19 weeks. Between 1000 and 2000 combined blank stares from Roger Goodell. But now it's over. A new CBA is officially in place for the next 10 years, ensuring labor peace for a long time to come. Football is back. Now that the lockout is over, months' worth of NFL's business as usual must be resolved in one month. The only thing lost in the work stoppage were the minicamps, OTA's , the Hall of Fame game, and months of free agency. The first three cant't be made up for. Free agency, however, can be made up for. We're about to see a process that takes a whole offseason, usually six months or so, be condensed in to three weeks. Free agent signings can be filed starting Friday night, but deals are in the works already. The Jets have recently resigned Santonio Holmes and are reportedly interested in Nnamdi Asomugha. The Titans have reached an agreement with Matt Hasselbeck, and the Vikings have reached a similar agreement with Donovan McNabb. But what about the people who don't have a deal yet? Where are they gonna go? That's why I'm here. Friday night is when the free agent pool starts to splash. I will be surrounded by multiple six packs of Gatorade, a TV with ESPN blaring, and a computer with fantasy football projections on it. Let the fun begin.

KEVIN KOLB

Right now, it seems like Kevin Kolb would be heading to Arizona. The Eagles owe it to Kolb, who patiently waited behind McNabb, only to get injured and have Michael Vick take his starting job. Kolb deserves a chance to start, and Arizona has some weapons that Kolb can take advantage of. Larry Fitzgerald also deserves the chance to have someone with actual depth perception throwing to him. Every time Derek Anderson underthrew him or zipped one over his head at light speed, Fitzgerald would look like he was looking for an opportunity to break Anderson's arm so they could put Max Hall in the game. When your quarterback is so bad that you would be better off with an undrafted rookie in the game, that suggests a quarterback upgrade is in order. The only problem with Kolb is the Eagles' asking price. The Eagles want a high draft pick plus immediate secondary help, and I'm not sure that the Cardinals are ready to give that to them. The Eagles had counted on the Cardinals and the Seahawks to get in to a bidding war to drive the price up for Kolb, but Seattle has settled their QB situation with Tarvaris Jackson (Which is like saying that you satisfied your hunger by picking up a rock and eating it, but whatever.) Now that the Cardinals don't have a lot of competition for Kolb, they can try to wait the Eagles out for a lower price. My call is that Kolb eventually signs with the Cardinals for a 3rd round pick plus a corner.

DOZENS OF AVERAGE WIDE RECEIVERS PLUS PLAX

This might be the deepest free agent pool for wide receivers in the history of the NFL. The big prize (Santonio Holmes) is off the market, but there are plenty of other wide receivers to be had in this offseason. Sidney Rice, Braylon Edwards, Malcolm Floyd, Steve Smith, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss are just some of the average wide receivers you can get for a decent price. This wide receiver free agent market is like the food on a cruise ship, unlimited quantities and average quality for a good price. Any team looking for a second or third wide receiver can easily find what they're looking for in this year's cruise food special. In addition to the cruise food wide receivers, Plaxico Burress has gotten out of prison and is mulling where to go next. I think that a team like the Rams or the Eagles makes a lot of sense. He can be a viable weapon for either team and take advantage of the third corners that will be covering him. There has been discussion of him going back to the New York Giants, but there isn't a place for him there anymore. I think that a Giants return would be akin to (wait for it...... wait for it......) shooting his career in the foot (I'm sorry, I couldn't resist.) As for the cruise buffet, it feels like half the league could pick up a new wide receiver. Teams that are loosing wide receivers such as the Jets and the Vikings are candidates to pick one up. Teams who don't have great receivers, such as the Chargers, could pick someone up. The Titans or Jaguars could help out their new rookie quarterbacks. The only teams that aren't in the running to help themselves to the cruise buffet are teams that are cutting players to get under the cap (like the Ravens) or teams that are set at wide receiver (like the Eagles or Packers).

 NNAMDI ASOMUGHA AND OTHER CORNERBACKS

It's tough to say where Asomugha is going to land. The logical conclusion would be the team with the most cap space looking for secondary help would be the front-runners. If that were the case, then Tampa Bay and Houston would be leading the chase for Asomugha. However, this is not the case. The Jets are reported to be very interested in Asomugha, as are the Ravens and the Cowboys. The Jets are a mere one million dollars under the cap and don't have a lot of money to give Asomugha without restructuring a lot of deals and parting ways with Edwards and others. The Cowboys and Ravens just cut a lot of players to stay under the cap, so I can't even figure out a logical reason why any of these teams are included. The cap space is somewhat like extra time in soccer. The referee decides how much extra time to allow the game to continue with no rhyme or reason. I think the game is over, and then I see +4 minutes or +2 minutes pop up in the box. The cap is the same way. There are a billion different cap loopholes to exploit. These include, but are not limited to, backloading deals, incentive contracts, large signing bonuses, restructuring deals, etc. Before the past few days, I followed a very logical line of reasoning as to why the Jets could not get Asomugha. Asomugha wants 10 million per year. We have 1 million per year left on our cap. Unless we frame Edwards and Cromartie for a crime, we can't get Asomugha. I never even knew all of these loopholes existed. It's kind of like paying taxes, only with superstar cornerbacks at stake. In the end, I say that Asomugha lands in either Tampa Bay or Houston, with the Jets moving on to a different corner. As for the second-tier cornerback section of the cruise buffet, there are a lot of options. Jonathan Joseph is the next best prize in free agency, and there are no shortage of second tier corners out there to round out the list. Corners such as Chris Carr and Drayton Florence can be had for reasonable prices. I could see every team that expressed interest in Asomugha (that missed out on him) grabbing a corner. If the cap is a problem for the Jets/Ravens/Cowboys, there are plenty of other corners to be had. Only teams that are either set in the secondary (like the Packers) or teams that have a billion more pressing needs (like the Cardinals) are out of the market for a corner.

BRETT FAVRE AND CEDRIC BENSON

(Quick note before the final breakdown. I would have reviewed every free agent in detail if they were each unique, but they're really not. After Asomugha, the cornerback market is essentially the same. Ditto for the wide receiver market after Holmes. The rest of the free agent class ranges from good yet unremarkable to Tim Thomas level awful. Also it's too time consuming to review every free agent when 95% of them are forgettable).
It's that time again. Turn the mics on, prepare a different team's baseball cap, fire up the chartered plane to Hattiesburg, and make sure to focus the camera in on the gray hairs in the beard. That's right, it's BRETT FAVRE time. I personally hate the guy for stabbing every single Packers fan alive in the back, but he always makes things interesting. Rumors are swirling about Favre returning to back up Michael Vick on the Philadelphia Eagles. I can tell you right now that's not going to happen. His ego is too huge and his likely price tag too ridiculous to allow a relegation to a backup role. His "silent ego" is in the model of a Gary Payton, somebody who didn't know when enough was enough and continued to act like a star well in to his 30s. I think that Favre signs on to start with whatever team ends the bad QB scramble without a quarterback and ends up panicking days before the season. I can see this happening with somebody like the Bills (no true QB) or the Jaguars (still looking for Blaine Gabbert insurance).
Now that DeAngelo Williams is off the board, Cedric Benson is the marquee running back in a free agent class that has no depth at RB. Benson could end up going to any number of teams. Off the bat, I think of the Seahawks (could use a true running back) and the Ravens (Need replacement for Willis McGahee) as potential candidates. That wraps up the review of the cruise food free agent pool. Thanks for reading

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