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Friday, September 30, 2011

Week 4 Picks

BILLS OVER BENGALS I've given up on the Bengals' chances of being this year's "Bad team that benefits from a good schedule". They have let me down in three straight weeks (by beating Cleveland, and then losing to San Fran and Denver), so the confidence meter in Cincy isnt particularly high right now. Buffalo will have at least one good week against an awful Cincy defense before falling back down to Earth. This time next week, we'll be living in a world in which the Bills are 4-0. I'm preparing for the apocalpyse just in case.
PANTHERS OVER BEARS  UPSET PICK!!! I never really liked the Bears this year (which means that I have something in common with everybody else who made predictions about this season). I think that the pass defense isnt good enough to handle Cam Newton. I also think that Jay Cutler is overdue for a "14-33 145 yards 1 touchdown 5 picks 6 eye-rolls 10 times screaming at somebody" game. Always enjoyable.
TITANS OVER BROWNS  This has got to be the week that Chris Johnson finally gets something going, right? Through three games, he's averaging about 2 yards per rush, has not had a run of over 10 yards, and has not rushed for 100 yards for the season. He can't stay terrible for this long. It's impossible. He didn't even appear on the SI or Madden cover.
COWBOYS OVER LIONS I have picked against the Lions so far (except for their easy game against KC) and I have gotten it wrong. What does this pick prove? That I don't remotely learn from my own mistakes. I expect the Cowboys to pull out a 20-17 win in which the Boys keep moving the chains with Dez Bryant on the slant route and Felix Jones running between the tackles. If the Lions win, I will be officially sold on them for the rest of the season (barring injury of course).
VIKINGS OVER CHIEFS 0-3 vs 0-3! Welcome to the Toilet Bowl! Or the Something Has Got to Give Bowl. I expect the Vikings to finally win a game. The Vikings can't possibly blow as huge of a lead as they did last week against a Kansas City team that would struggle to beat a good college program. The Vikings should stop impersonating the 2011 Red Sox and hold on to their lead.
RAMS OVER REDSKINS Because it's time for Rex Grossman to start being Rex Grossman again. By the way, the NFC East just became a wide open race. The Eagles aren't locks anymore, the Giants and Cowboys never fail to fall short of expectations, and the Redskins are, well, you know, the Redskins.
SAINTS OVER JAGUARS Much like Rick Perry in the debate, the Jags' offense is constantly throwing up all over themselves.
EAGLES OVER 49ERS It's the return of VINCE!!!!! Also, the Eagles are pissed off and facing a terrible team. This is not going to end well for the 49ers.
STEELERS OVER TEXANS The Steelers' defense against the Texans' offense. A classic matchup. The Steelers' offense vs the Texans' defense? About as one-sided as a hanging.
FALCONS OVER SEAHAWKS Last week's pitiful loss in Tampa did nothing to improve how I feel about Atlanta. We're about one terrible loss away from me ditching the Falcons. By the way, I'm still talking about the NFC West. I'm starting to feel sick.
GIANTS OVER CARDINALS I cant believe that the Giants are looking like the favorites to win the NFC East at this point. If this happens, I'm going to use Neil Everett's Mayne Street answer "Trick question, there is no NFC East." whenever somebody asks me who won the NFC East.
PACKERS OVER BRONCOS LOCK OF THE WEEK. Should I even waste words on this one? You're right, I shouldn't. Next.
PATS OVER RAIDERS This one is going to be closer than a lot of people think. I wouldnt be at all surprised if the Pats are upset in this one. Tom Brady will still throw for between 450 and 600 yards, but still. McFadden is a monster, but he has to drag the Raiders like every SNL Weekend Update writer has to carry Seth Meyers. Pats win a close one 28-24.
CHARGERS OVER DOLPHINS It was mentioned by a reader in Bill Simmons' column last week that the movie Dolphin Tale was definitely a good sign for Miami on Sunday. After seeing their pathetic performance against the Brown, the Dolphins remind me of the Dolphin in the movie getting a prosthetic tail, only the tail abrubptly falls off and they sink immediately. In a related story, I picked them as a mini-sleeper this year. I tossed that pick out the window about 2 seconds after Week 3 ended. Rivers and the Chargers win easily.
JETS OVER RAVENS  Although I try to be objective, I can't hide the fact that I am a HUGE homer. I dont think that I've picked against the Jets in years. Although I think that Baltimore will win, the Jets can pull off an upset here. If the Jets can get back their old identity and ditch the run and gun 300 yards per game throwing approach, they can be real contenders in the AFC. Meanwhile, Baltimore is a volatile Vegas Craps table. Is there a lucky dice thrower that can't lose (See weeks 1 and 3) or one that might as well be holding a black cat (See week two)? You never know what you're going to get (they're much like a box of chocolates in this respect). We finally see the average Ravens and the best Jets (Rex might have triggered an earthquake with his postgame speech after last week. Too bad there's no footage). Jets win 23-20.
BUCS OVER COLTS I can't believe how much Monday Night Football has disappointed in the first few weeks. Instead of Jets-Pats and Saints-Falcons, we get crap like this and Giants-Rams. Good times! The Colts showed signs of life last week, but their first win won't come against Tampa Bay. The Bucs win 26-17.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Some Thoughts About Who's Who in the NFL (Or Slice's cop-out really short column)

                                 
We have two weeks in the bag in the 2011 National Football League Season. Now we approach the pivotal Week 3. Weeks 3-5 are like middle school/ beginning of high school for football teams. You start figuring out what your identity is and how you stack up against everybody else. As we head in to these weeks, watch for teams that don't have identities that have winning records. You can't survive in the playoffs winning each game a different way. More on that later. Anyways, it's time to figure out who the upper echelon is, who wont get there this year, and who will never approach it. I'm not doing a picks column this week (if you want my picks, friend me on ESPN.com and you can see my Pigskin Pick Em page. I went 12-4 last week, so I'm not too bad. At least this is what I keep telling myself.) because I want to do a different kind of column this week (Real reason: I have too much work to do a picks column, I want to go see Moneyball/Bucky Larson this weekend, and also I'M LAZY.)
                                      PLAYOFF TEAMS THAT I'M WORRIED ABOUT
I'm not counting any playoff team that's obviously terrible (Colts and Chiefs) because, uh, you don't need me to tell you that they're terrible. I'm here to try to figure out which teams that could falter that aren't so obvious. Right now, I'm worried about the Jets, the Falcons, the Chargers, and the Saints. The Jets and the Falcons (my favorite team and my Super Bowl pick) can be grouped in to the same category of good teams with no identity. The Jets have the "Ground and Pound" philosophy since Rex Ryan came and have ran it with a great deal of success. However, the offensive line is starting to give out. Nick Mangold is injured for a few games, Wayne Hunter is awful, and we learned in the preseason that Vladimir Ducasse is just as terrible. Shonn Greene is not an elite back, but he can be good behind a competent offensive line. Now, it's not apparent just what the Jets are. Sanchez seems to be improving, giving us the notion that this could be a passing team in a few years. However, the defense and running game look questionable in the early goings (I'm not sold on a great performance against the Black Sheep McCown Brother. Also, I would like to correct last week's column. McCown started Weeks 1 and 2, not Gabbert. Maybe I was just too depressed to think of a McCown brother starting in the NFL). Meanwhile, the Falcons' defense is in infinitely worse shape and the offensive line can't protect Matty Ice. I would be concerned if I were a Falcons fan. Do I regret picking them for the Super Bowl, even though they pulled out a win against the Eagles last week? Um, yes. Yes I do. The Chargers and Saints have identities that simply dont work. The Saints have the "We're not going to bother playing inspired defense, we'll just have to outscore you" identity. That does not work. EVER. The Seahawks beat them last year and revealed the Saints' secondary troubles, now the Saints are showing all of us that they have learned nothing from last year. The Chargers have perhaps the most talented team in football, but the Chargers keep shooting themselves in the foot. The Chargers had seven possessions inside Patriot territory through the halfway point in the third quarter and had only seven points to show for it. The Chargers committed three turnovers and failed to convert a fourth and goal from the one yard line. On a master list of "Types of teams who don't win playoff games", non-fundamentally sound teams are number one and all offense no defense is number 2. Anyways, watch out for these teams to stumble in the upcoming weeks.
                                                               7UP
1. New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers: Teams with established quarterbacks and veteran leaders were in the best position to survive the lockout.
2. Darren McFadden's Fantasy Stock: It's through the roof at this point. I expect a great year from McFadden. Imagine what could happen if the Raiders' line were decent.
3. Detroit Lions: I never expected the Lions to be this good. However, I would buy Lions stock cautiously, two of their top players are injury risks. If Stafford and Calvin Johnson stay healthy, this is a dangerous team.
4. Drew Brees: Brees might be on his way to regaining his undisputed "Best in the league" status after two unbelievable games. Too bad New Orleans' defense is made of those crash test dummies.
5. Retro Uniforms: They're still hip!! The Jets' ugly 1950s color scheme unis propelled them to a demolishing of the Jags. I'm convinced that every struggling team should come up with a random alternate uniform to turn their season around. Trust me, it will work.
6. Bucky Larson References: HE'S BORN TO BE A STAR!!!!! RATED R!!!!!!!!
7. The AFC East: Three of the seven 2-0 teams are in the AFC East (Bills, Jets, Pats). The divisional games and level of competition will be as heated as ever between the Jets and the Patriots, and relevant for the first time ever between the Bills and Jets/Pats.

                                                              7DOWN
1. Reviews for Bucky Larson: "A part of my soul died while watching this movie" Haters.
2 Colts and Chiefs: Ouch. This is the first time I've ever seen two playoff teams fall this far. These two teams are not only bad, they are life-alteringly terrible. As in "They have a serious chance of going 0-16" terrible. It's borderline funny at this point, and we're only in Week Two.
3. Guys starting ahead of 2011 Rookie QBs: Blaine Gabbert is getting thrown in to the fire after the Black Sheep McCown brother predictably sucked. Matt Hasselbeck is proving that he isn't completely over the hill, and Donovan McNabb is still in his football Mid-Life Crisis. Not a great time for these guys.
4. NFL Sunday Ticket: 300 dollars per year? Really? I can get myself a nice new iPod for that. Or a really crappy car. Or keep it and say that I have about as much money as Bucky Larson made in three weeks (two more Larson references to go before I break the record). Anyways, I'll save my money and settle for a few games per week.
5.The Brady Rule: I can understand wanting to protect the quarterback's legs, but this has gotten ridiculous. A 15 yard penalty after Raheem Brock was pushed in to Ben Roethlisberger's legs? Really? Soon we'll have defensive players having to ask for permission before they can sack the QB.
6: Jamaal Charles: At least he can look at the framed photos/ Youtube videos of last season. I was kinda sad to see him go. Until next year, Jamaal.
7. Too much Homework: It sucks. Sadly, you'll probably be seeing more of these really quick articles because of the too much HW actor during the week. I will try to put in a longer piece time permitting, but it looks like I'll have to keep these shorter for the foreseeable future. Oh, and one more thing. Wait for it....... Wait for it....... BUCKY LARSON BORN TO BE A STAR RATED R!!!!!!!!!!

Friday, September 16, 2011

Week Two NFL Picks

If Week One was any indication, we're in for a wild NFL season. Cam Newton took the league by storm, throwing for over 400 yards (albeit against a decrepit Cardinals defense) and looking like he has the chance to be an elite QB in a few years. The Dolphins and the Patriots engaged in an epic "How many times can we blow a coverage in a single game?" contest, leading to both quarterbacks throwing for over 400 yards, including a franchise record 512 yards for Brady. As a long suffering Jets fan, I can personally attest to the fact that Tom Brady never stops finding ways to punch you in the gut. Even when he isn't playing you. More depressing still, my two Super Bowl picks (the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers) lost by a combined score of 65-19. If you're like me and your picks did terribly (or well) just keep repeating the following. DONT FREAK OUT, IT'S STILL WEEK ONE!!!! You've got to go with your gut as far as picks go at least until after Week 3. Two cardinal rules of picking football games are to never panic over a team doing poorly unless there is solid reason to believe that it will happen again (Example: There is reason to believe that the Colts will do just as pitifully again because they don't have Manning. There is absolutely no way that the Steelers are going to turn the ball over seven times again or get blown out by 28 points.). On the flip side, you always want to be a little on edge when your picks are doing too well. Too many teams hit their ceiling way too early in the year, and then fizzle down the stretch. Your job during the first three weeks of the season is to stick with your gut and to figure out which teams are headed downhill and make sure to stop picking them the moment they don't look as fantastic as they did in the first few weeks. So, without further ado, here are the picks for Week Two of the NFL Season.

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BUFFALO BILLS VS OAKLAND RAIDERS

       The Bills are a team that I would put on my "peaking too soon" list. The Bills dismantled the AFC West Champs last week, but nobody believes that they're as good as they played that day. Still, I see the Bills beating the Raiders this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick looks dialed in right now, having thrown for four touchdowns against the Chiefs. The Raiders gutted out a tough win last week, but it was against a mess of a Denver team. I wouldnt be surprised if the Raiders pulled another one out, but I expect the Bills to go to 2-0.  By the way, I saw some camera shots of the few Bills fans that were in Arrowhead Stadium last week. They were just standing with their mouths wide open and this look of disbelief in their eyes. The Bills have thoroughly stunk for so long that their fans actually can't believe something good happened to them. At least for now, the Bills look like a mini-sleeper at the very least. Ryan Fitzpatrick decimates the Raiders for three touchdowns. Bills' fans should take a picture of their 2-0 record, because it wont last very long with New England, Philly, and the Giants all in the next few weeks.

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CHICAGO BEARS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

     I'm going with the Saints in this one because they absolutely could have beaten the Packers with a few breaks here and there (most notably making a concerted effort to tackle Randall Cobb during his 108 yard kickoff return). The Bears had everything go perfectly for them in a 30-12 dismantling of the Falcons. The Saints' secondary got shredded by Aaron Rodgers, and I don't expect a much different result when they go up against Jay Cutler. However, the Bears' secondary really wasn't excellent during the game. If the pass rush didn't get to Matt Ryan and force him to make mistakes, he could have made some plays. White was open a few times, Tony Gonzalez got seperation, there were a lot of things he could have done. The Saints' offensive line is much better than the Falcons, and I would go as far as to say that right guard Jahri Evans is the best in the game (only allowed two sacks through 16 games last year). Drew Brees will dissect the Bears' secondary while Mark Ingram gets more carries and gradually becomes more and more involved as he learns the playbook. The Bears will keep the game close, but lose on a killer last minute interception from Cutler. I'm going with the Saints in a 34-30 shootout.

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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VERSUS CLEVELAND BROWNS

     It's shocking how far the Colts have fallen since 2009. 2009 Colts fan: I can't believe that Jim Caldwell took the starters out, we could have gone undefeated! 2011 Colts Fan: I cant believe we allowed that big punt return, we would have only been down 20 at halftime to the Texans if that didn't happen! As an interesting side note, the over/under is 10.5 on the number of eye blinks for Jim Caldwell all game. The guy might be statue or perhaps a cadaver that's been propped up. I'm not even sure if he has a pulse. One thing that I am sure about is that the Colts won't lose this game. Once you start losing to a team from Cleveland, then it might be time to put your current roster in the paper shredder and start over. I can't picture the Colts losing at home to the Browns. Cleveland accumulated over 100 penalty yards (In a related story, I've never watched a game in which a team that had over 100 penalty yards won.) and made several stupid mistakes on defense (I keep picturing somebody from Cleveland trying to call the play in the huddle, and then watching AJ Green run in to the endzone from the corner of their eye, and then scratching his head wondering what happened. Pat Shurmur, my friend, you have your work cut out for you) in a 27-17 loss to the Bengals. No,really. A team lost to the Bengals. That wasn't a typo. No matter how depressing the brief Kerry Collins era is, I just can't see Indy, with all the veteran leadership on that team, losing to Cleveland. The Colts pull it out in a 24-14 win.

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS DETROIT LIONS

     And the Chiefs are decomposing already. I would have at least thought that the Chiefs would flirt with .500 for about half the season before their downward spiral, but it looks like Kansas City is wasting no time kicking off the trend. Detroit, in stark contrast, is on a big upward trend. The Lions survived against Tampa Bay in a 27-20 thriller in the most underrated game of Week One (Big plays, lead changes, nearly a last second comeback by Tampa Bay, it was a good game). The Lions laid out for everybody to see just how much of a liability Tampa Bay's secondary was. Nobody in that whole defense had the size or the athleticism to match up with Calvin Johnson, so he looked like the token dominant tall guy in a high school pickup basketball game. Why am I telling you this? Because Kansas City is worse. Not even a little worse. Much worse. Eric Berry is gone for the season, which puts a defense that already experienced what it's like to be in way over your head in an even more overmatched position. The only hope the Chiefs have of beating opponents is to outscore them. I don't know if you've noticed, but I can't remember the last time an all-offense, no-defense team even approached the Super Bowl. You're not gonna believe this, but I don't think it's a coincidence. The Lions win 31-20.

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GREEN BAY PACKERS VS CAROLINA PANTHERS

        The principle of not overreacting to teams also applies to players. Cam Newton had a great first game, but will it carry over to a much tougher Packers' team? Sure, there's reason to be excited about Newton, but expect a much more limited role this week. The Packers' defense got shredded by Drew Brees last week, but I don't expect that will happen again with a rookie quarterback and only one or two big play options for Newton to throw to. Although this Carolina team will be exciting to watch throughout the season, I say that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers score almost at will in this game. A rookie keeping up with Aaron Rodgers in a shootout against a much better defense than anything he's ever seen? Not in this lifetime. Packers 42, Panthers 20.

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BALTIMORE RAVENS VS TENNESSEE TITANS

     Before I make this pick, I need to adress something about the Ravens' performance last week. I kept hearing talk all week about how "the Ravens finally know how to win" and even "they're my Super Bowl pick right now by a mile". Let's all take a deep breath and agree that the Ravens are nowhere near as great as Pittsburgh made them look last week. Come on. Deep Breath. Inhale. Exhale. Good, we're on the same page. That being said, Baltimore is a very good football team that may or may not have taken a leap in Week one, but I'm afraid that's all that can be said about them at this point because, again, IT"S WEEK ONE!!!!!!!!! However, I expect the Ravens to run roughshod over the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have an underrated defense, but there's really nothing there that I can't see the Ravens handling. Ray Rice looks better than ever, Joe Flacco made sharp throws and great reads all game, and Anquan Boldin's route running is just amazing to watch. The only way I can see the Titans getting close in this one is if Chris Johnson has several of his long overdue "By the time you see me I'll be a good 10 yards past you" runs where he just hits a gap in the O-Line and apparently turns in to a human Ferrari for the rest of the run. Even if he has three of those (see the highlights from Week 2 of the 2009 Season Titans vs Texans if you want to see an example of what I mean), I still dont think it will be enough for a Titans' offense (led by an anywhere from 70 to 90 percent washed up Matt Hasselbeck) to carry the Titans by the Ravens. Ravens 31 Titans 10

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TAMPA BAY BUCS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS

     Both teams looked awful on opposing sides of the football. The Bucs' secondary gave up big gains and generated no push at the line of scrimmage all day. We've already covered their inadequacies. But what about Minnesota? We all know that Adrian Peterson is pretty much a sure thing every week, but where is the passing game? Donovan McNabb passed for, no joke, 37 yards all game. I don't play football, but I'm occasionally the QB for short pass plays in gym class. I threw it a little bit ahead of the fastest kid in the class on a 5 yard drag route, and he took it in from 50 yards out for the touchdown. In that game, I just passed for more yards in one play than McNabb did for the whole game. Kind of scary, isn't it? My question here is this. You have a great O-Line and quite possibly the best RB alive, WHY DON'T YOU USE HIM??? Throw more screens! Run checkdown plays for him! Any of those options beats McNabb (By the way, you know what McNabb is like at this point? A person in a mid-life crisis. He's having the football equivalent of a mid-life crisis. Instead of accepting his limitations and sticking to what he's good at, you could tell that he was just dying to try and scramble and throw deep passes like he was 23 again. All he needs to do is purchase a motorcycle or a convertible to complete the effect). Meanwhile, the Bucs need to get back to a balanced offense that pounds the ball with LaGarrette Blount and chews up clock to keep the defense off the field. I say that Tampa Bay rights the ship (I would like to accept the 2011 Worst Pun of the Year with that joke) with a 20-17 victory.

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JACKSONVILLE JAGS VS NEW YORK JETS

     The Jets dodged a huge bullet at home against Dallas last week. I honestly dont know how to feel about that win. On the one hand, Sanchez took a big step forward and looked like he was developing in to the franchise quarterback that we thought he'd be. On the other hand, the Jets abandoned their Running and Defense Wins philosophy that led them to so much playoff success over the years. The Jets made the big plays that I never see them make, but they had to get a little lucky to put themselves in the positions to make those plays. Ultimately, I dont know what to expect from the Jets this week. Fortunately, I have a pretty good idea as to what I should expect from the Jags this week after they grinded out an ugly win over the Tennessee Titans. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert will have to face what might be the most complicated defense in the league after relying heavily on the running game in a close home win over one of the most unstable teams in the league. How do I think this game is gonna end up? Take a wild guess. Jets by at least 10.

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ARIZONA CARDINALS VS WASHINGTON REDSKIINS

     Along with all the chatter about how good the Ravens are and how much of a choke artist Tony Romo is (Noooooooo really?! I never noticed.) I heard some snippets about the Redskins. You've gotta love the token overreaction to Week One and you really can't blame columnists for looking for a juicy angle. but really? "Surprise team of the year." "A dark horse in the NFC." "It sure is a football team!!" OK, I made that last one up. Still, they're a bit overblown. Have people considered that the Giants could just be a bad team? Whatever people predict, I see a relapse for the Redskins at home against Arizona. Kevin Kolb is just the kind of passer that can pick apart a weak secondary like Washington's. That's not to say that the Redskins won't keep it close, but I see Kevin Kolb throwing for at least three hundred yards in a 30-27 win for Zona. Sorry for the lack of substance about the actual game, but I can't find anything interesting to say about this one. I'm sorry guys. Just know that I try.

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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS

     Welcome to my Lock of the Week! The Seahawks let up two huge returns to Ted Ginn Jr last week in the span of less than a minute, turned the ball over three times, and just barely got over 200 yards of total offense (200 yards of total offense is football's Mendoza Line. One or two games beneath it is OK, but you've got a problem if you regularly have games where you get less than 200 yards). Meanwhile, the Steelers are absolutely ticked off about their embarassing loss to Baltimore. Taken as a whole, this game is like waving a steak in front of an angry lion. You can guess which team is the steak. Steelers 35, Seahawks 17

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DALLAS COWBOYS VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

     And Tony Romo does it again! If he isn't already considered the Karl Malone of football, he's getting very close (I've always wondered if Romo just stops after three quarters in other things. Does he not play the fourth quarter in Madden? Does he complete three-fourths of his grocery shopping, then just walk out? We need a TV show where athletes are forced to live up to their sports reputation in everyday life.). Romo starts off the game very well, and then something changes. He starts getting that "It's just not in me" look in his eye and starts throwing passes that have no arc and fly off three feet away from his target. Other than that, Romo's just about the best clutch QB I've ever seen. However, the Cowboys should be able to dominate a hapless 49ers team that got two touchdowns off of Ted Ginn's returns. The Cowboys are almost a complete team. Besides the secondary (awful) and the O-Line (will get better as the season goes along), the Cowboys have just about everything you would want on a football team. However, the 49ers have become a popular upset pick (Popular upset picks never win. If they did, we would all be studio analysts. See where I'm going with this one?) due to the fact that the Cowboys choked away that game last week. People are forgetting things like "Isn't Alex Smith terrible?" and "Don't they play in the NFC West, where my high school's intramural flag football team would look decent" and most importantly, again, "Isn't Alex Smith terrible?" This one won't even be close. Cowboys win 30-14.

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BENGALS VS BRONCOS

     Uh-oh. Could we have a (gasp followed by shocked face) sleeper in Cincy? Their next few games (they only face one team with a wining record last year, and that team is Indy) are pretty much the biggest gift a football team can receive. All that's missing is the big red bow on top. If the Bengals play reasonably well and come up with some big plays, it's not entirely unfeasible that the Bengals could be 4-2 or 5-1 in their next six games. Far-fetched, but definitely possible. Meanwhile, the Broncos had a lackluster game against the Raiders last week, losing 23-20. The defense allowed 150 rushing yards to Darren McFadden, not a huge deal until you realize that a Honda Civic might not be able to make it 5 yards behind that mess of an offensive line. On another note, I would say that judging from the boos raining down on Kyle Orton throughout the game on Monday, we can write the Broncos off as another team that does not have home field advantage this season. The Bengals win 23-20 as Cedric Benson runs for over 150 yards.

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MIAMI DOLPHINS VS HOUSTON TEXANS

     Let's agree, just like we did for the Ravens, that the Texans are definitely not as good as the Colts made them look last week. And that the Dolphins are not as bad as the Patriots made them look last week. To be honest, I didn't expect the Dolphins to keep the game that close. I was expecting the inevitable 34-7 blowout that just happens whenever the Pats want to make a statement. Still, I'm not quite sure that the Dolphins' best will be able to beat the Texans. Miami's one fatal flaw, the atrocious secondary, will be exposed yet again as Schaub throws for over 400 yards. Arian Foster will go for 75 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries in his first game back. I'm calling this one a Texans' win by the score of 31-20.


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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

     It seems like everything that can go wrong for the Chargers ends up going wrong. I'm not sure how often kickers get injured when they're untouched by the other team on the play, but it's gotta be something like once a year. The Chargers almost lost to a clearly inferior team at home because they're kicker was out and they had to go for it on 4th down in field goal range several times because Nate Kaeding wasn't there. I'm convinced that this kind of thing only happens to the Chargers. Meanwhile, nothing of the sort ever happens to New England (I just slammed my head on my desk repeatedly), who dismantled Miami on Monday Night. The Chargers definitely wont let Brady have the same degree of success that he had against Miami, but I really cant think of another football team that would let that happen. The utter smackdown that Brady layed on the Miami Dolphins' defense was borderline cruel and unusual. In a semi-related story, Tom Brady's Male Uggs commercial was also cruel and unusual, but that's a different topic. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers pulled it out, as the Patriots showed that their defense might have gotten worse since last season (how is this even possible?). However, I say that the Chargers fall a turnover short in this one as the Pats win 28-23.

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NEW YORK GIANTS VS ST LOUIS RAMS

     Ouch. I'm not quite sure I expected the Giants to lay this big of a goose egg on Opening Day, not against the Redskins anyways. But they did. When your defense makes Rex Grossman (REX GROSSMAN!!!) look good, then it might be time to re-evaluate things. Just a suggestion. By the way, the Rams played the Eagles a lot tougher than most people give them credit for. The score was close until the fourth quarter, when the Eagles started to pull away. Really, can you blame the Rams for getting half their starting defense injured? Can you blame Sam Bradford when his receivers seemingly let passes sail right through their hands like they were made of glass or something? No, you can't. The Rams are another team that's much better than the box score would show. Sadly, I'm beginning to suspect that the Giants are not. An already beaten up secondary will get picked on some more on Monday Night as the Rams beat the Giants 17-7.

VS.



GAME OF THE WEEK: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS ATLANTA FALCONS

     And we're finally at the game of the week. About time. And here is my controversial pick of the week (It could be interperated as gutsy, moronic, depserately trying to support my Super Bowl Pick even though I don't totally believe in them any more, or none of the above. Whatever controversial means to you.). The Falcons upset the Eagles in a 38-35 shootout. Since you're taking the time to read this, I feel obligated to back that statement up. The Falcons have tremendous depth at not only receiver, but overall passing options. Lockdown corners such as Nnamdi Asomugha work best when they can focus in on one receiver and dont have to switch around every play. The Falcons force you to switch around every play because of their depth at the receiver position. Plus, I don't see any linebacker on the Eagles that is athletic enough to match up with Tony Gonzalez, meaning that he'll probably haul in at least 6 passes. The Eagles were gashed up the middle by Cadillac Williams last week, so what do you think Michael Turner will do to them? Not to mention the fact that this could be the week where the Eagles' questionable offensive line catches up with Michael Vick. We all know it's only a matter of time before it happens, and the Falcons' defense is in that "This is NOT happening again" mindset that defenses usually get in after bad games. I expect this game to be almost a doppelganger of the Saints-Packers game last week. Two good teams, questionable defenses, amazing offenses, great QB's, no shortage of receiving talent, it's all there. In the end, expect a Falcons win as Matty Ice scores one touchdown too many for Vick and the Eagles.
That is the end of my Week Two picks. So long, enjoy Week 2, and see you next time for week 3 picks.

     

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

NFL Preview Part IV

SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS: 6-1

6. New York Jets

  • Best Case Scenario: Mark Sanchez finally has a breakout year and leads the Jets to a first-round bye. The new veteran additions at wide receiver serve as suitable replacements for Cotchery and Edwards (especially Burress, who pulls the wide receiver equivalent of what Michael Vick did last year of quarterback). The new rookies on the O-Line integrate seamlessly with the veterans. The defense is a force to be reckoned with, and Muhammad Wilkerson contributes double digit sack numbers. Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie maintain their position as one of the best corner combinations in the league (especially Revis, who at times looks dangerously close to "The other team's best receiver might as well not show up today" levels. ) The Jets finish at 13-3, and win the Super Bowl.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Mark Sanchez regresses in his third year (equivalent to dropping dead from a "being a franchise QB" standpoint.), forcing an overrated running game to carry the team behind an offensive line that struggles as the rookies take a full year to learn all of the different protection schemes. The Jets' 3-4 scheme can't live up to its full potential with Sione Pouha starting at nose tackle, and the Jets' defense takes a fall from grace not unlike what we saw with the Ravens defense. A strong schedule doesn't help matters at all. The Jets finish 8-8 and watch the Pats win the Super Bowl.
  • Most Likely Scenario: Sanchez continues to develop in his third year, but doesn't break out until year 4. We find out if Sanchez is a game manager, or a game winner. Shonn Greene bounces back from his sophomore slump to run for 1,000 yards. The offensive line isnt as good as it was in past years, with veteran Damien Woody gone. Holmes and Burress form a fearsome tandem of WRs (my candidates for starters on the all-felony team) and create severe matchup problems for opponents. The defense stays in the top 5, getting no better nor worse than last year. The Jets finish the season at 11-5, grab the 5 seed in the AFC East, and go to at least the divisional round of the playoffs. In the words of Bart Scott, CANT WAIT!!!!!! Also, Bart Scott definitely joins Rasheed Wallace and others in the "I wouldn't want to be around him when he's pissed" Hall of Fame. By the way, I love how Bart Scott called out everybody who picked the Pats from ESPN after the game. I vote that every time there's a big upset, one guy from the team gets to call out 5 people that picked against them and insult them. It can't miss.


5. Green Bay Packers

  • Best Case Scenario: See: 2010 NFL Season. The best case scenario for the Packers is that everything that happened last year happens again, except that the Packers get a first round bye this year and can play their playoff games at home.
  • Worst Case and Most Likely Scenario: Super Bowl Hangover alert!! We've seen this time and again with the Steelers in 09, the Saints in 2010, the Giants in 08, the list goes on and on. One might not think "They've got a big target on their back" is reason enough to not win the Super Bowl again, but it is. When you make a Super Bowl pick, you also have to consider history. Last year was the first Super Bowl in a long time where two popular preseason Super Bowl favorites met. Most other years, it's been either one or zero preseason favorites. Super Bowl Winners that don't get better the next season or aren't significantly ahead of the rest of the league dont repeat as champs. The only ones to do it in the last decade were the Pats. They had a 21 game winning streak, so they were definitely ahead of the rest of the league by a large margin. The Packers dont give me that impression. I'm penciling them in for a division title and the number 2 seed. Worst Case Scenario is a divisional round loss to the three seeded Atlanta in a Playoff Revenge game.


4. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Best Case Scenario: Super Bowl Winners. Eagles fans expect nothing less after one of the greatest offseasons by any team in NFL History. Michael Vick continues his amazing comeback by sustaining the level of play we saw from him in 2010. With LeSean McCoy in the backfield and weapons like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Steve Smith, and Brent Celek, the Eagles offense takes the number one spot. Defensively, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha give the Eagles the top shutdown corner in the league and one of the top 5 playmaking corners in the league. Asante Samuel's conversion to the safety position goes off without a hitch. uddenly, the Eagles have no real weaknesses on defense. Andy Reid turns in to football's version of Casey Stengel, substituting players in different defensive packages masterfully. The Eagles shake their terrible (and that's an understatement) history to finally win a Super Bowl.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Michael Vick gets injured for the year after constantly having to scramble away from the rush coming from his left side. While this might seem a bit extreme, it might happen. The Eagles' O-Line (especially the left side) wet the bed in pre-season against base formations. There's no reason to expect them to get better in the regular season. Also, the Eagles could be victims of both the Heat Theory (everybody believed in us a little bit too much) and the disease of more (everybody on the offensive side of the ball wants to be number 1 and starts in-fighting. Not unlike what happened in Cincy to implode the Ocho-Housh tandem. That, and the fact that they were more washed up than Brett Favre was last year at the time. I think that bears mentioning.) Defensively, the Eagles need a defensive tackle or a linebacker to overperform, otherwise their front seven (besides the defensive end positions) isnt scaring anybody. Asante Samuel wants to go back to playing corner after he decides that he does not like safety. He starts to complain about it (This isn't far-fetched. Remember his whining after the Eagles demoted him to third corner/safety? You're telling me that can't happen again if the Eagles lose a few games in a row?) Amidst all of the chaos, the Eagles finish with a wild-card spot and get knocked out in the first round. The most likely scenario? Right in the middle. 12-4, a first round bye, and a loss to the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game. I'm hoping Philly fans don't break all the windows in my house after this pick.


3. New England Patriots

  • Best Case Scenario: Tom Brady continues to be Tom Brady, the running game with the Law Firm and Danny Woodhead (or as Joe Theismann called him, Danny Woodcock. Deion Sanders was rolling on the ground laughing for about 5 minutes. I love those guys) finally hits its stride this year (the one thing that was missing from every great Pats team). Ocho experiences a Moss-like revival with Tom Brady.  The offensive line and the defensive line improve drastically with the additions of bigger veterans to fill holes on a surprisingly non-physical team. The secondary comes in to its own this year, and Devin McCourty starts his climb up the "best corner in the league" rankings.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Brady starts going the way of Peyton Manning as football studio hosts across the country worry about what's wrong with him. The running game collapses due to inconsistancies in the offemsive line. Veterans that the Patriots signed prove to be washed up, and further weakens the offensive/defensive lines. The defense holds the Pats back yet again, ranking in the bottom 5 of the league in points given up and total yards. The Pats go 10-6, losing the division to the Jets, and are ousted from the playoffs in the wild card round.
  • Most Likely Scenario: Brady is still Brady, the wide receiver situation improves minimally with the addition of Ocho, and the offensive line also gets only a little better. The defense really steps it up after another year of experience (youngest defense in the league). However, they lose in the AFC Conference Championship to the Steelers.

Which reminds me.........



THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS ATLANTA FALCONS
BEGIN!!!!

Oops sorry I was thinking of Epic Rap Battles of History. My bad.

Let's do a quick Dr. Jack breakdown of these two teams to finish the mega-preview:


  • Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger, the most underrated QB in the league. He's a playmaker, a leader, and a rapist. His ability to escape sacks and scramble outside the pocket is amazing and he's got a cannon arm. The guy's been to the Super Bowl before (three times) and won it twice. He's been considered a winner, a whiner, a legend, an injury risk, a seedy bar regular, and a winner again. On the other side is Matt Ryan. Not nearly as much happening with him. Game manager, cool under pressure, definitely not taking anything off the table. However, there's a huge difference between not taking anything off the table and putting things on to the table. I'll go with Roethlisberger.
  • Running Backs: Two running backs of nearly equal value. Rashard Mendenhall is a powerful running back that never seems to go down on first contact (the Jets learned that the hard way in the AFC Championship Game). Turner is a nice blend of both speed and power. However, Mendenhall is definitely more consistant than Turner. Both have had troubles with injuries. Since Mendenhall is working his magic behind an infinitely more sucky offensive line, I'm giving this one to the Steelers.
  • Wide Receivers: Mike Wallace against Roddy White is pretty even (Both guys are deep ball threats that can completely screw up the other team with one big catch). Hines Ward vs Julio Jones goes to Ward by a mile, although that could definitely change depending on how Julio Jones does this year. Both the Steelers and the Falcons have great depth at wide receiver. The Steelers have Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, while the Falcons have Harry Douglas and Eric Weems. Tony Gonzalez definitely beats out Heath Miller in the tight end department. Even Gonzalez' blocking is underrated. Wide receivers go to the Falcons by a hair.
  • Offensive Line: The Falcons are decent, the Steelers are horrible. Nuff' said. Advantage Falcons.
  • Defense and Special Teams: Again, the difference between taking things off the table and putting things on it. The Falcons defense is good. Ray Edwards is a good pass rusher, Dunta Robinson is the biggest name among a good secondary, the defense is just good, but not great. The Steelers defense is great. The pass rush will get to Matt Ryan early and often and disrupt what the Falcons are trying to do on offense. The Falcons will come close, but the defense will be their downfall.

The Pick? 
Pittsburgh Steelers: 31                            Atlanta Falcons: 17


That is the end of the Mega Preview. Because I did too much writing this week, I'm taking Week 1 off. Be back next week with my first Picks column. Hasta le Vista everybody.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

NFL Preview Part III

Because of the fact that I have stuff to do today (also I'm lazy. Not sure if you picked up on that yet), this is gonna be a four-parter. I'm only covering the playoff pretenders today. Super Bowl Contenders will be tomorrow. So if your favorite team hasn't been mentioned yet and you don't see them in today's piece, then congratulations, they're part of the NFL's elite group of teams in 2011 (unless of course something fluky happens and two or three teams that you see today can sneak in). Also, I am covering the playoff teams in order of how they will be ranked. The Rams will win the NFC West, and get the four seed, but they're still the weakest link in the playoffs. OK now that we cleared that up, here we go.

PLAYOFF PRETENDERS: 12-7

12. St Louis Rams

  • Best Case and Most Likely Scenario: Sam Bradford takes another huge step forward. Steven Jackson remains one of the best backs in the league. Then, the Rams need to..... OK never mind they play in the NFC West. 9-7 and an average team should be good enough to capture the divison title. Sorry for the lack of paragraph length, but large parts of me are dying now that I have to keep talking about a team from the NFC West.
  • Worst Case Scenario: 6-10. The defense regresses in the face of a more difficult schedule this year (Philly, NY Giants, and Baltimore make up their September schedule). Sam Bradford experiences a sophomore slump (crossing my fingers that doesn't happen to me this year) and regresses from a pocket awareness standpoint. The Rams finish 3rd in the NFC West. And that, my friends, is the last time I'll have to talk about the NFC West for awhile.


11. Detroit Lions

  • Best Case Scenario and Most Likely Scenario: Matt Stafford sustains only a few minor injuries throughout the season. Jahvid Best has a breakout year and gives the Lions a running game that they haven't had since Barry Sanders retired. Rookie wideout Titus Young adds depth to a quality receiving corps. The defense, anchored (quite literally) by two behemoth defensive tackles (Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley) is much improved from last year. Quality young players take it to the next level on both sides of the football to propel Detroit to a 10-6 record and the 6 seed in the NFC.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Matthew Stafford can't stay healthy over a full season and the dreaded word "bust" is thrown around. The offense falls in to disarray without a reliable starting quarterback. Nick Fairley can't stay healthy, taking away the Suh-Fairley combination that would have undoubtedly created matchup nightmares for pretty much every offensive line. The secondary stays the same as it was in 2010. The Lions finish 7-9 and third in the NFC North.


10. Houston Texans

  • Best Case and Most Likely Scenario: Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson all retain their 2010 form all season long. Owen Daniels is finally able to stay healthy for an entire season. The secondary is much improved with the additions of Jonathan Joseph and Danieal Manning. Rookie J.J. Watt comes out of nowhere and wins the defensive rookie of the year award. Mario Williams, Demeco Ryans, and 2009 defensive rookie of the year Brian Cushing help the defense skyrocket from its next to last ratings in 2010 all the way up to the middle of the pack. The Colts stumble with an injured Peyton Manning, allowing the Texans to finally break through and win the AFC South at 11-5.
  • Worst Case Scenario: It all hinges on the Colts. The Texans are finally good enough to win the division (Yes, the classic "Just when I think I'm out they pulled me back in" team. The "Texans finally get to the playoffs" angle is in a tie for the most overused and incorrect pre-season pick with "Chargers win Super Bowl". Wait, why am I trying to make myself look stupid?) and the Colts are now just non-dominant (not sure if that's a word) enough to lose it. If Manning comes back perfectly healthy and the Texans secondary collapses, then it's back to 7-9 for the Texans and I'll look like double the idiot for ditching the Colts when they still had a healthy Manning.


9. New Orleans Saints

  • Best Case Scenario: Drew Brees is still Drew Brees, the running back situation doesn't fall apart like last year, and the offensive line continues to dominate. The defense stays pretty much the same. The Saints go 12-4 and win the NFC South and go all the way to the Super Bowl. Basically, everything stays the same from last year, only they get a little more lucky.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Everything stays the same as last year, only they get more unlucky. Dumb losses (like the Browns' game and the Cardinals' game, where the Saints had two turnovers returned for touchdowns) sink the Saints to 10-6 and a potential near miss in the playoffs.
  • Most Likely Scenario: Again, everything remains the same. The Saints are the team with the least amount of turnover from last year to this year. Last year, the Saints had some terrible luck and still grabbed the five seed. In 2009, the Saints had great luck and won the Super Bowl. This year? There's no telling what they're luck will be, but it's gotta even out eventually, right? This is the year that the Saints get average luck. The Saints go 12-4, but lose the division to the Falcons.


8. San Diego Chargers

  • Best Case Scenario and Most Likely Scenario: We're invoking the NFL luck rule again here. I know that picking somebody to be lucky because "they're overdue for it" is illogical and incorrect, but that's how the NFL works. If a team is abnormally lucky or unlucky, it usually swings back the other way or at least to average. The Chargers had the number one offense and the number one defense (both in terms of yards gained/given up), but they allowed a whopping NINE special teams touchdowns. That won't happen again this year. It can't. There is simply too much turnover from year to year on the special teams squad to allow that to happen again. That's what happened with the 09 Steelers, and they made the Super Bowl the next year. The Chargers happened to have the misfortune of one of the crappiest coverage teams in recent memory. Assuming everything stays relatively the same, the Chargers should go 12-4 and win the division. The worst case scenario? Everything that happened last year. How did you like my one sentence worst case scenario? At this point, I'm practically screaming that I'm too lazy to think of intelligent arguments today.


7. Baltimore Ravens

  • Best Case Scenario: Like their counterparts in the AFC East, the Ravens finally get over the hump and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs. Anquan Boldin flourishes in his second year with the Ravens' offensive system with Joe Flacco, a reliable quarterback who never seems to do anything stupid. The defense gets back to top 5 form. The pass rush gets to opposing QBs early and often in games. Ed Reed continues to be a dominant safety in the NFL. The Ravens find themselves primed for a Super Bowl run, but get eliminated in the AFC Conference Championship.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Get ready for another token "I'm too lazy to write a good worst case" paragraph (Sorry, folks. I'll be better tomorrow. Wait, tomorrow is the last day of Summer. Scratch that, you'll get an even worse version of me tomorrow. I know, I'm sorry.) The Ravens get beaten by the Steelers again. I dont see this Ravens team not making the playoffs, but the worst case is they're not better then any of the teams in a top-heavy AFC.

Alright, I typed that last paragraph with my head clunking against my desk and my eyelids starting to close and I have a fantasy draft in 20 minutes. Uh-oh

Monday, September 5, 2011

NFL Preview Column Part II

Welcome to Part II of the preview.
SOMEBODY'S GOTTA BE AVERAGE: 18-22

22. Minnesota Vikings

  • Best Case Scenario: Donovan McNabb regains some of the accuracy and mobility that he had in Philadelphia. One positive is that he got benched for Rex Grossman last year, so there's nowhere to go from that but up. Adrian Peterson continues to be one of the best running backs in the league (his vision and cutbacks are just amazing to watch) without the fumble problems are knee injuries that have been the lone stains on an otherwise promising career. A talented young nucleus of receivers led by Percy Harvin provide suitable targets for McNabb and, in the years to come, Christian Ponder. The defense regains the dominant form that it had in 2009, led by Jared Allen and a healthy secondary. The Vikings take advantage of an easy schedule to finish 10-6 and grab a wild card spot.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Donovan McNabb proves once and for all that he is washed up, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns as the Vikings start the season 0-4. Leslie Frazier panics and inserts a not-yet-ready Christian Ponder at quarterback, leaving Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin as the only assets on a depleted offense. The banged-up secondary gets torched, although the Vikings are still strong against the run. The Vikings finish at a dismal 5-11. Thankfully, Brad Childress isn't walking through that door.
  • Most Likely Scenario: McNabb switches over to his "savvy veteran" mode (Short throws, accurate, a few long ones, no scrambling, each hit reminding us that his ribs may or may not be made out of paper at this point). Adrian Peterson is still a monster behind a respectable O-Line (only gave up 17 sacks last year. What a shame. If only Brett Favre had to play behind the Raiders' O-line, he would have retired years ago.) The receiving corps isn't as bad as last year, although not as good as 2009. The defense returns to respectability. However, another great year from the Packers and a breakout year from the Lions prevent the Vikings from reaching the playoffs. The Vikings finish at 7-9.


21. Cleveland Browns

  • Best Case and Most Likely Scenario: Second Year Quarterback Colt McCoy provides hope for the future by throwing for over 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns. The offense once again revolves around bruising back Peyton Hillis (I wouldn't want to attempt to tackle that man even if I were an NFL Player. It looks like you're trying to tackle a Hummer) who rushes for 1,300 yards. The Browns do not generate much of a pass rush from a defensive line that consists of mostly rookies. The secondary is anchored by Sheldon Brown and Usama Young. Linebacker Scott Fujita serves as the quarterback of the defense. The Browns take advantage of an easy first three months (Cincy,Miami,Tennessee,Oakland,San Fran,Houston,St Louis, Jacksonville) to get off to a 7-4 start, after which they fall back down to 8-8 after a murderous December (Baltimore twice and Pittsburgh twice).
  • Worst Case Scenario: Colt McCoy proves that he can't manage the offense, prompting every NFL junkie to look back at the stats from last year, see that he went 2-6 as the starter, and then the floodgates open. Criticism starts pouring down on McCoy, while ignoring the fact that he might as well have Sarah Jessica Parker starting at wide receiver. McCoy's confidence is shaken Chad Henne style, and he goes in to a year-long (if not career-long) downwards slide. The rookies on defense for Cleveland prove to be busts that cant bull their way through offensive linemen like they did in college. The Browns tease their fans by always staying at 2-3 or 5-4 before free-falling faster than Charlie Sheen (Sheen references aren't outdated yet. I hope.) during their final five games to finish a disappoint season at 6-10.


20. Arizona Cardinals

  • Best Case and Most Likely Scenario: Kevin Kolb lives up to his potential in his first sustained starting job. Larry Fitzgerald finally has a half decent quarterback to throw to him (We need to come up with a name for good receivers that are saddled with crappy quarterbacks. I vote for this to be called the Delhomme Zone. It's kinda like the Tyson zone, except for terrible QB's instead of incurably crazy and illogical people). Rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson turns in to a playmaker and a dangerous return man. The defense improves from it's ranking of 29th to about 24th with Paris Lenon and Joey Porter leading the way. Arizona becomes another all offense no defense team, finishes at 8-8, and finishes second in the dismal NFC West. Just know that a small part of me dies any time I have to talk seriously about anything involving the NFC West.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Kevin Kolb turns in to a gunslinger that constantly has to play from behind because the defense keeps letting big plays happen. Beanie Wells continues to be Beanie Wells, and the offensive line does not help whatsoever. The secondary never fully recovers from the loss of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Patrick Peterson isn't experienced/talented enough to even attempt to fill that hole. The Cardinals fall to 5-11 and are a threat to move to L.A. in a few years.


19. Miami Dolphins

  • Best Case Scenario: Chad Henne improves enough to make Brandon Marshall relevant again and proves to be a late blooming quarterback. Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas duplicate the success that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had running the wildcat offense. Jake Long continues to anchor one of the best offensive lines in the league. Defensively, the switch to the 3-4 highlights the talents of Paul Soliai, a young defensive tackle that allowed star linebacker Cameron Wake (14.5 sacks last year) to come up the middle relatively unblocked. Breakout years from Vontae Davis and Sean Smith elevate an under appreciated defense to "best in the league" status. The Dolphins upstage the Jets, go 10-6, and grab the 5 seed.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Chad Henne isn't a late bloomer and is just plain awful (the more likely scenario). Reggie Bush can't recapture any of his USC magic and does not date anybody that even approaches Kim Kardashian, kinda hard to do when you're a single football player in Miami. Brandon Marshall is the league's newest player to officially land in the Delhomme Zone. Defensively, the switch to the 3-4 system overwhelms the secondary, who can't win the one on one matchups necessary to make the 3-4 work. The Dolphins sink to 6-10 and dead last in the AFC East.
  • Most Likely Scenario: Henne improves from last year (not a hard thing to do unless you're name is Tarvaris Jackson). Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas replicate most of the success that Williams and Brown had with the wildcat. Brandon Marshall and his cast of complimentary receivers raise their stats up from last year, but not by a large amount. The defense continues to be a force that will rank in the top 5 of the league. However, a tough schedule will limit the Dolphins to an 8-8 finish.


18. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Best Case Scenario: Everything unfolds in the exact same way that it did last year. Jamaal Charles continues to be one of the most explosive running backs in the league. Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe continue to be one of the most underrated QB-WR tandems in the league. The defense continues to be average. The Chiefs finish 10-6 and grab a wild card spot. The odds of all of this happening while moving from the easiest schedule in the league to the hardest is something like 4,000,000 to 1.
  • Worst Case Scenario and Most likely Scenario: The Chiefs take a bunch of steps backward, purely because of the schedule. Games against the Chargers (twice), the Jets, the Patriots, the Dolphins, the Colts, the Steelers, and the Packers will all contribute to a significant dop-off in overall production. The Chiefs will be facing an elite quarterback in six games on their schedule. The Chiefs only had to face three last year (and none of them were at their best). The Chiefs have enough easy games and winnable games to finish 8-8, but it will be significantly tougher than last year,


IF YOU AIN'T FIRST, YOU'RE LAST: 13-17

17. Chicago Bears

  • Best Case Scenario: Another team where the best case scenario was pretty much realized last year. I shouldn't have to bother writing it down. Just look at the Bears' whole 2010 season and consider that the best case for this year. Specifically, there's no way that they win so many close games, get so many easy opponents, or get as many lucky breaks (Calvin Johnson's nullified catch, a weak NFC that allowed them to claim the two seed with an 11-5 record, and getting to play an emotionally drained Seattle team in the divisional round. They even could have made it to the Super Bowl if Jay Cutler didn't tear his MCL. The Packers had so many opportunities to put that game away, but they kept blowing it. I'm telling you, the Bears were LUCKY.)
  • Worst Case Scenario: 4-12. No joke. The Bears were a slightly more extreme example of the 2006 Jets. OK quarterback, great running game, a lucky win or two, a very easy schedule, and a win or two by pure chance. The only difference is, the Jets played a Wild Card game against a Pats team that should have gone to the Super Bowl (that was the year they collapsed in Indy). The Bears had the luxury of playing Seattle. The next season, that Jets team imploded in to a 4-12 mess. The Bears have an aging defense, an inconsistent quarterback, and nobody that tied them to that 11-5 record. You always know that the Patriots would never lose it the year after a Super Bowl win because they had Tom Brady and no team that had an elite QB like Brady should ever finish below 9-7 for any reason. I don't feel any of that with Chicago.
  • Most Likely Scenario: 9-7. I know, it's an optimistic prediction, but the Bears do have some winnable games on their schedule. As long as the front seven can pressure opposing quarterbacks and hold opposing running games to reasonable yardage, then the Bears can get away with another smoke and mirrors 9-7. The only thing that could really submarine the team is a porous offensive line (remember that 10 sack game against the Giants?) that didn't look any better in the preseason. Starting at left tackle (the most important position because it protects the quarterback's blind side) is JaMarcus Webb (feel the irony!!) that gave up 11 sacks last year. 11 sacks! They should just call him the Human Turnstile at this point. Anyways, I predict another good, not great, year for the Bears before the wheels fall off in 2012.


16. New York Giants

  • Best Case Scenario: Eli Manning throws less interceptions than his league-leading total of 25 in 2010. Both Nicks and Manningham have "Top 30 receivers in the league" seasons to make up for the loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. The front seven will have to dominate almost to the extent of the 2007 team, which does not seem unreasonable considering the Giants have two players who had sack totals in the double digits. However, the Giants have a secondary that's very susceptible to getting injured. As long as everybody in the secondary stays healthy, the Giants should be just fine. The best case scenario for the Giants are that the Eagles tumble and the Giants, winning every game that they should win and even a few that they shouldn't have, go 11-5 and steal the division title from Philly.
  • Worst Case Scenario: The Giants' offense, hampered by the loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss, sputters. Eli Manning throws just as many interceptions as the year before and Ahmad Bradshaw gets stymied when opponents realize that it's very easy to turn the Giants' offense in to a one dimensional entity. The secondary breaks down, with long term injuries to Kenny Phyllips and Corey Webster. Because of these injuries, Michael Vick and Tony Romo are able to light up the scoreboard against the Giants, who finish with a 7-9 record (featuring an 0-4 mark against the Cowboys and Eagles). After the season, some members of the New York media turn in to cannibals and eat Tom Coughlin alive.
  • Most Likely Scenario: Exactly in the middle. The Giants finish with a respectable 9-7 record, just missing out on a playoff spot against the Cowboys on the last day of the season. The offense drops from a top 5 offense to a better than average offense with an equal chance of knocking you out early and knocking themselves out early. The defense is solid, but not anywhere near the 2007 team. The secondary sustains several short-term injuries which cost the Giants a game or two. The season includes another heartbreaking loss to Phyilly on a last second touchdown pass by Michael Vick. Tom Coughlin turns in to a human volcano and actually explodes afterwards (I'm not ruling this out).


15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Best Case Scenario: A breakout year from Josh Freeman propels Tampa Bay in to the playoffs as the 5 seed. A strong offensive line and more punishing running from LeGarette Blount establishes the Bucs identity as a strong, physical team that can make big plays and get first downs on a regular basis. Rookies Da'Quan Bowers and Mason Foster excel in an underrated Tampa Bay defense. Young corner Aqib Talib and ageless wonder Ronde Barber make a great combination at corner, rounding out a complete defense.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Josh Freeman, despite all signs to the contrary, regresses in his third year. LeGarrette Blount proves to be a one year wonder, taking away a key element in Tamp Bay's offense. Da'Quan Bowers' bad knees prevent him from being a capable pro. Aqib Talib's off the field incidents (he is currently indicted on reckless endangerment charges) catch up with him, taking away another piece of Tampa's young core. Ronde Barber retires after the season and Tampa Bay becomes a less dramatic example of the NBA's mid 80s Rockets teams (a talented young nucleus that was well positioned for the future self combusts after troubles with the law, injuries, and overall bad luck).
  • Most Likely Scenario: The offense takes another big step forward, advancing from the 19th ranked offense all the way up to number 12. The defense, however, prevents the Bucs from reaching the playoffs. The loss of savvy veteran Barrett Ruud is not only a severe blow to the veteran leadership, but it also takes away the perfect middle linebacker needed to play the Tampa 2 style that the Bucs have found so much success with over the years. The Bucs finish out the year at 9-7, and are primed to assert themselves in the division race for the next 5 to 6 years.


SURPRISE PICK OF THE YEAR 

14. Indianapolis Colts

  • Best Case Scenario: Peyton Manning's injury does not cost him any playing time or cause any long term problems. The old guard of Wayne, Clark, Freeney, Mathis does not show any signs of age. Nobody on the offensive line gets injured, so Peyton Manning never has to coordinate protections or rush throws. The Colts take advantage of a semi-depleted AFC South to cruise to a 13-3 record and the number 1 seed in the AFC. Also, I look really stupid for picking the Colts to collapse.
  • Worst Case Scenario and Slice's Most Likely Scenario: Peyton Manning is never the same. Neck surgery is serious stuff. Something is going to be a little different for the rest of the season. Maybe his throws won't be quite as on point. Maybe he'll miss a wide open Reggie Wayne a few times this season as everybody wonders where Peyton Manning has gone. I'm not saying he'll fall off the face of the Earth, I'm just saying that he won't be as effective as before. Not only that, center Jeff Saturday is getting up there (he turns 36 soon), and the whole left side of the offensive line consists of rookies. That's kind of important since rookies make mistakes. A mistake from a quarterback leads to a turnover. A mistake from an O-Lineman leads to his QB being drilled by a vicious hit. Manning's body can only take so many more of them before it starts to give out. Not one of the Colts' important players are below thirty. Facing a younger, better prepared AFC, the Colts will still post a respectable 10-6 record. However, this is the year where the Texans finally break through to win the division. The Colts go 10-6, and get beaten out by the 10-6 Ravens and the 11-5 Jets for the Wild Card spots.


13. Dallas Cowboys

  • Best Case Scenario and Most Likely: Romo suffers no lingering side effects from the injury and returns to form. Felix Jones turns in to the poor man's Jamaal Charles, a running back with impressive acceleration and good vision at the line of scrimmage. The offensive line does an adequate job of protecting Romo, who finds any of his big play wide receivers early and often in the season. The Cowboys achieve some form of competency on defense, an area where they have underachieved for so many years, and finish at 10-6, good enough for the dubious "best team to miss the playoffs" honors.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Tony Romo comes back from his injury and tries to win games by himself and ends up getting picked off when he throws in to double coverages. The new additions on the offensive line give Romo no protection at all. As a result, Romo reinjures himself and misses a large majority of the season. The defense remains just as putrid as it was last year. The Cowboys fall to 6-10 and last in the division. Jerry Jones fires everybody up to and including the night shift janitor.

Part III is coming tomorrow night with 12-7 The Playoff Pretenders and 6-1 The Super Bowl Contenders. Wait for it.........Wait for it............Wait for it......... WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!!!!