NFL Preview Column Part 1

Football season is almost upon us. After an extended lockout (which everybody should just pretend never happened from now on) the NFL is open for business. So without further ado, welcome to the Mega Preview. We'll be going through all 32 teams and covering what the best-case scenario, worst-case scenario, and most likely scenario is. These scenarios are excluding any injuries (unless a specific team or player is more likely to be injured.) or any wild-card scenarios (Peyton Manning gets traded to the Bills, a player dies, or the cameras malfunction in Foxboro.) This part will be covering the Crown Turds and the We Don't have Ourselves Advancing Sections. Tomorrow will cover the Ordinary Teams and Playoff Pretenders sections. Tuesday will be the Playoff Contenders section. One disclaimer before we start; the rankings here are how I think the NFL Teams will be ranked at the end of the year. For instance, (Spoiler Alert!!!) I have the Rams making the playoffs and Indy missing them (I'll explain why later). However, I think that Indy is much better than St Louis. However, since I have St Louis going to the playoffs and Indy not going, St Louis will be ranked better than Indy.

28-32: THE CROWN TURDS OF THE NFL

32.Cincinatti Bengals

• Best Case Scenario: 6-10 is the best case scenario for the Bengals. I don't see them going higher than that. Ruling out a wild-card scenario (Andy Dalton, against all evidence to the contrary, turns in to Peyton Manning circa 2004) the Bengals are just such an incomplete team and have too many holes to go much of anywhere. The best-case scenario here is that they turn in to a frisky mini-sleeper, steal a win or two from average opponents, and have a win total that exceeds Cedric Benson's jail time (in years).

• Worst-Case Scenario: For future reference, I will not bother to do all three scenarios (best,worst,and likely) if a team's worst or best case scenario doubles as their most likely one. There are so many things that can and probably will go wrong with this Bengals team that I dont know where to start. The defense is a mess. Jonathan Joseph is gone. Andy Dalton looked closer to Ryan Leaf than Matt Ryan in the pre-season. The Bengals handled the Carson Palmer situation so eggregiously that Palmer would willingly retire from football over spending a year (or more) in football purgatory after the Bengals refused to dump him while he still might have some value. The Bengals are an all offense no defense team, minus the offense. Something tells me that a 2-14 season is looking pretty likely at this point. The Bengals also drafted Andy Dalton at the perfect time to knock themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

• A few bad signs: I was reading the SI NFL Preview issue yesterday to take some notes for the column. For each team, SI focused on one specific area of the team that is newsworthy, undervalued, interesting, etc. For the Bengals, they chose to focus on the motivational signs in the team locker room. Not only is it a bad sign when SI (which tried to put every single team in a good light) says to themselves "There is nobody on this team that's worth writing a single word about", but it also reveals something else. The Bengals are literally having to talk themselves in to this season. I thought this might be a bad sign.

31. Washington Redskins

• Best-Case Scenario: John Beck turns out to be one of those quarterbacks that aren't good until their late 20s, Rex Grossman does his best Anyone besides Rex Grossman impression, and the ground game overperforms. Even so, the defense will have to exceed expectations in a Cincinatti Bengals 2009 kind of way. One of the toughest schedules in the league does not help. Best case scenario for the Redskins is also 6-10.

• Worst Case Scenario: The quarterback situation turns in to a disaster and the offensive line collapses. The Redskins are still winless at the end of October. Daniel Snyder panic-fires Mike Shanahan. At least Andrew Luck will be a viable option in next year's draft.

• Bad Signs: When John Beck and Rex Grossman are in a battle to be the starting quarterback on your team, something has gone terribly wrong.

30. Carolina Panthers

• Best-Case Scenario: Cam Newton turns out to be an excellent game manager, DeAngelo Williams takes pressure off of his rookie quarterback, and the re-signed veterans on defense (Beason,Johnson,Davis, and Gamble) all have career years. The Panthers finish 8-8 and turn in to a reasonable copy of the 2010 Bucs (a team that is positioned well for the future and is one of the most exciting teams in the league).

• Worst Case Scenario: Cam Newton turns out to be the biggest bust of the last 10 years (not as unlikely as you would think). Steve Smith far exceeds his 2009 record of 87 eye rolls and 46 exasperated expressions as Newton zips balls 5 feet over his head (a la Jake Delhomme). The defense goes in to a relapse as the veterans start coasting, knowing that it won't matter since they're protected by their new long-term contracts. A million different studio analysts say "Cam Newton can be good, but he is getting no HELP!!!" in roughly three dozen different ways. Newton ends up re-enacting the career of Vince Young (another college standout turned pro bust that Newton shows shocking similarities with.) The Panthers improve to 3-13.

• Most Likely Scenario: Cam Newton is a slow developer, but gets the hang of the offense by the end of the year. The Panthers finish 5-11 with two victories coming inside the toughest division in football. Williams has an average season, and the defense starts to move towards the middle of the pack in terms of points and yards allowed. The Panthers fill in some more holes in next year's draft and are set up to become fringe playoff contenders for the next year or two.

• Bad Signs: Half of the starters on defense last year were re-signed by the Panthers in the last two years. Because when you finish 2-14 and you're in a rebuilding effort, the one thing that you should always do is sign back the defense that let up over 25 points per game last year. That should do the trick.

29. Buffalo Bills

• Best Case Scenario: Ryan Fitzpatrick turns in to a good quarterback that can direct the offense and take off running at any time. The exciting young players (Fred Jackson, Brad Smith, Steve Johnson, and C.J. Spiller) steal at least two victories from the jaws of defeat. The defense improves just enough that it's considered below average and not a flatlining liability. Shawne Merriman recovers from his slew of injuries and turns back the clock to the 2006 version of himself. Marcell Dareus turns in to the perfect big man for the 3-4 defense. The Bills go 8-8.

• Worst Case Scenario The Bills discover that they can't make the playoffs with Ryan Ftizpatrick as their quarterback and feel stupid for sinking so low that they were forced to start an Ivy League quarterback. The young playmakers turn out to be busts (especially C.J. Spiller, who turns out to be one of those "All speed No vision" guys that fail in the NFL after dominating in college. Even if C.J. Spiller fails, the Bills can at least look forward to the Raiders overpaying him, triggering a pulse in Al Davis for the first time in centuries). Marcell Dareus turns in to a younger version of Albert Haynewsorth (a grumpy superstar with effort problems that tries to coast on talent). Shawne Merriman gets injured again and the Bills continue to be gashed up the middle by decent running backs. The Bills finish 3-13 in a tough division and are a serious threat to relocate to L.A.

• Most Likely Scenario: The Bills start a brief upward trend. Fitzpatrick is good enough to carry them for another few years, the Johnson-Smith-Spiller-Jackson combo turns in to one of the most secretly fascinating offensive combinations in the AFC, and the offensive line is able to hold its own. The defense improves, but not drastically. The Bills finish 5-11 and are still a threat to relocate.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars

*This is the only Crown Turd that has potential to (Gasp!!) reach the playoffs.

• Best-Case Scenario: Blaine Gabbert seamlessly converts from the spread offense to the pro (not as difficult as you may think.) In a related story, Blaine Gabbert has the most potential to be a good pro quarterback out of anybody in last year's draft. Then again, it's either him or the following options ;Vince Young clone, Jake Locker (cannon arm, mobile, not accurate, does not handle blitzes well. Reminds me of a guy that played for the Raiders recently. You can guess who that is.), Christian "I'm not even bothering to hide the fact that I'm completely terrified" Ponder, and Andy "Why did I get stuck in football jail (figuratively and literally)" Dalton. Maurice Jones-Drew keeps up his stellar performance (not very likely, the left side of the line could not be more cooked), and the five new defensive starters help the Jags become a team that can hold its own. Aaron Kampman comes back from the ACL Tear better than ever. The Jags take advantage of a Colts collapse, another teaser season by Houston, and a rebuilding year for the Titans to claim the AFC South division title.

• Worst and Most Likely Scenario: Maurice Jones-Drew is stymied by an offensive line that can't run block to save their lives. By Week 8, the Jags formally request to replace the O-Line with statues. Gabbert gets off to a slow start in his rookie year. The defense shows no improvement, and the pass rush is still non-existant. Aaron Kampman re-tears his ACL (not at all unlikely). Nobody steps up at wide receiver to give Gabbert any help at all. The Jags finish 5-11 and begin year two of rebuilding.

23-27 WE DONT HAVE OURSELVES ADVANCING IN OUR OWN PLAYOFF BRACKET

27. San Fransisco 49ers

• Best Case Scenario: San Fran breaks its infamous streak of 8 losing seasons. Frank Gore goes an entire season without missing a game (unofficial odds on this; 8:1). Alex Smith does a reasonable impression of any quarterback in the league besides Alex Smith, and a talented nucleus of receivers on offense (Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, and Braylon Edwards) make Niners football watchable. The transition to the 3-4 defense helps highlight the playmaking prowess of Patrick Willis and elevates him to "league's premier linebacker" status. The secondary holds its own after losing Nate Clements and missing out on Nnamdi Asomugha. The Niners take advantage of the weakest division in football and finish 8-8.

• Worst Case Scenario: Frank Gore injures his knee and misses a significant portion of the year (odds on this happening; 5:1). Alex Smith continues to be Alex Smith and keeps producing more groundballs than Derek Jeter in a slump. Braylon Edwards turns back in to a mopey drop machine and Michael Crabtree's stats fall significantly. Vernon Davis will still catch at least 6 touchdowns. The inexperience on secondary (especially after changing to a 3-4) is exposed constantly as the Niners replace the Texans as the team that every quarterback wants to play. The 3-4 turns in to a disaster, and Jim Harbaugh proves to be no better than Mike Singletary (no small feat).

• Most Likely Scenario: The receivers and running back Frank Gore turn Alex Smith in to a poor man's Matt Cassel circa 2008. The defense gets shredded as the 3-4 system fails without a reliable nose tackle. Departures in the secondary hurt the Niners. San Fran ends up turning in to a less extreme example of the 04-06 Cincinatti Bengals (Explosive offense and an opportunistic defense that creates turnovers and gives up huge chunks of yardage). The Niners finish the season at 6-10.

26. Oakland Raiders

• Best Case Scenario: Darren McFadden matches or exceeds his totals from last year (nearly impossible with two rookies and a former second-teamer starting on the offensive line). A Raiders receiver notches over 700 yards (nobody did it last year, not even new acquisition Kevin Boss). The secondary survives the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha and the front secen steps up big time. The Raiders finish at 9-7 for their first winning season since Al Davis was alive.

• Worst and Most Likely Scenario: Jason Campbell continues to be Jason Campbell. Darren McFadden does not even gain 800 yards after being saddled with an O-Line that rivals the 05 Raiders and 03 Texans in the "If you're the quarterback or running back that has to line up behind this mess, consider ordering the premium health care package" department. The secondary does not survive in the wake of losing Nnamdi Asomugha and reverts to pre-Nnamdi levels. Rolando McClain is considered the lone bright spot, notching over 100 tackles, before announcing that he will leave when his contract expires to play for a professional football team. The Raiders finish 6-10 and finish once again in the cellar of the AFC West, after which Al Davis grows fangs and several Raiders employees go missing.

25. Tennessee Titans

• Best Case Scenario: Jake Locker bucks the trend of strong-armed draft busts to become Tennessee's savior at quarterback. The offensive line lives up to its billing as one of the best in the league. Chris Johnson is able to shake the constant 7 and 8 man fronts that are consistantly thrown at him and maintains his status as the best running back in the league. A revamped front seven (featuring veteran leader Barrett Ruud, rookie Akeem Ayers, and reliable linebacker Will Witherspoon) forces opposing offenses to attack the secondary, where stalwarts Cortland Finnegan and Michael Griffin have career years. Cortland Finnegan fights Andre Johnson a second time and doesn't get the snot beaten out of him again. The Titans take advantage of weak years from either the AFC South, the Jets, or the Ravens to grab a playoff spot.

• Worst and Most Likely Scenario: The Titans sputter out of the gate to a 1-4 or 0-5 start. Desperately looking for a spark, the Titans turn the offense over to JaJake Russell, who eventually lays a worse egg than Brady Quinn on the 08 Browns. Opponents are not at all scared by the Titans passing game, leading to the first ever instance where a team puts 9 in the box on a regular first and 10 to stop Chris Johnson. The offensive line and the defense remain solid. The Titans finish 6-10 and Herm Edwards yells "THEY CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!!" at least three times during the season. Just know that the over/under for the number of "THEY CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!!!" references from any analyst is about 4.5.

24. Seattle Seahawks

• Best Case Scenario: Tarvaris Jackson turns in to a poor man's Michael Vick (unofficial odds of this happening; 450,000:1). The rookies on the O-Line protect Tarvaris and let him scramble. Earl Thomas anchors an average secondary as Seattle's only strong home-grown talent. The Seahawks take advantage of a sophomore slump from Sam Bradford, a subpar season in Arizona, and a stumbling 49ers team to claim a second straight division title at 7-9. In a related story, I'm not quite sure how I'd react if the Jets missed the playoffs at 10-6 and the Seahawks made it in at 7-9. Throw up? Write my local congressman? Handle it Rex Ryan style with a vat of chicken wings? Pretend it didn't happen? Too many possibilities.

• Worst and most likely Scenario: Pete Carroll decides that every pass play should involve five receivers standing next to each other in the middle of the field and Tarvaris just throwing it up for grabs. The Seahawks adopt this method and it improves Jackson's completion percentage (I hope I'm joking.) More seriously, Seattle adopts the West Coast offense and challenges Jackson to complete more than fifty percent of his passes within five yards (I'm not apologizing at any point for these Tarvaris Jackson jokes. If there were a halftime contest for football that was the reverse of the half court shot in basketball, maybe a throw through the goalposts from the 25 yard line, and I had to pick one QB to miss it for a million dollars, I would pick Jackson. Not only would I pick him, I would have already spent that million. He's that awful). Marshawn Lynch proves that his sensational 67 yard run against the Saints was one bright spot in a depressing career. The front seven gets pounded up the middle by bigger running backs. The secondary and the offensive line remain decent. The Seahawks finish at 6-10 and third in the NFC.

23. Denver Broncos

• Best Case Scenario: Kyle Orton retains his form from a year ago and proves to be one of the more exciting quarterbacks in the league. Knowshon Moreno sustains his role as a touchdown vulture and gets in the end zone 10 times. Brandon Lloyd matches his production totals from last year, and Eddie Royal hauls in at least 70 passes. All-Star offensive lineman Ryan Clady keeps Orton protected from his blind-side. The defense is reinvigorated with the return of Elvis Dumervil and all-star rookie Von Miller. Veterans Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins shake off the rust and lead the defense to respectability. The Broncos finish at 9-7.

• Worst Case Scenario: Kyle Orton regresses, leaving Broncos' fans to wonder if he will ever regain his 2010 form (Ditto for Brandon Lloyd). The rest of the offense dips in production, but not by a significant margin. The defense does not get any better with the return of Dumervil. Von Miller turns out to be yet another bust. Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey have the Brett Favre Memorial "Uh, can I get a do-over on that whole coming back from retirement thing?" face going all season long as opposing quarterbacks harass the Broncos defense. Broncos fans lament that they could have had Cutler and Marshall in their primes if Josh McDaniel didn't tick Cutler off (Huge mistake on his part. If you have an established young franchise quarterback, why would you try to trade him? Quick Analogy: I have a girlfriend {huge leap of faith here people. Remember, an ANALOGY. As far as you know.} This girlfriend and I have been together for about a year. I start telling my friends that I want to dump her for another girl. She hears this news and starts to get angry. I pretend it never happened. Eventually, she just ends up dumping me. The lesson for all football coaches here is that if you can envision that a move you're about to make would make your longtime wife/girlfriend angry if you did it to her, you might not want to try it with your franchise quarterback. OK, the rambling analogy is over).

• Most Likely Scenario: Somewhere in between. Orton takes a small step back (as does the rest of the offense), but not significantly enough to cost them the season. The defense will definitely improve from its last in the league position, but not enough to put the Broncos in position to make the playoffs. Elvis Dumervil gets 8 or 9 sacks and D.J. Williams serves as a nice compliment. The Broncos go 7-9 and finish third in the AFC West.

Today was a very long column. It could have been better, it could have been worse. But just remember that WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!!!! Part II coming tomorrow.