NFL Preview Part III

Because of the fact that I have stuff to do today (also I'm lazy. Not sure if you picked up on that yet), this is gonna be a four-parter. I'm only covering the playoff pretenders today. Super Bowl Contenders will be tomorrow. So if your favorite team hasn't been mentioned yet and you don't see them in today's piece, then congratulations, they're part of the NFL's elite group of teams in 2011 (unless of course something fluky happens and two or three teams that you see today can sneak in). Also, I am covering the playoff teams in order of how they will be ranked. The Rams will win the NFC West, and get the four seed, but they're still the weakest link in the playoffs. OK now that we cleared that up, here we go.

PLAYOFF PRETENDERS: 12-7

12. St Louis Rams

• Best Case and Most Likely Scenario: Sam Bradford takes another huge step forward. Steven Jackson remains one of the best backs in the league. Then, the Rams need to..... OK never mind they play in the NFC West. 9-7 and an average team should be good enough to capture the divison title. Sorry for the lack of paragraph length, but large parts of me are dying now that I have to keep talking about a team from the NFC West.

• Worst Case Scenario: 6-10. The defense regresses in the face of a more difficult schedule this year (Philly, NY Giants, and Baltimore make up their September schedule). Sam Bradford experiences a sophomore slump (crossing my fingers that doesn't happen to me this year) and regresses from a pocket awareness standpoint. The Rams finish 3rd in the NFC West. And that, my friends, is the last time I'll have to talk about the NFC West for awhile.

11. Detroit Lions

• Best Case Scenario and Most Likely Scenario: Matt Stafford sustains only a few minor injuries throughout the season. Jahvid Best has a breakout year and gives the Lions a running game that they haven't had since Barry Sanders retired. Rookie wideout Titus Young adds depth to a quality receiving corps. The defense, anchored (quite literally) by two behemoth defensive tackles (Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley) is much improved from last year. Quality young players take it to the next level on both sides of the football to propel Detroit to a 10-6 record and the 6 seed in the NFC.

• Worst Case Scenario: Matthew Stafford can't stay healthy over a full season and the dreaded word "bust" is thrown around. The offense falls in to disarray without a reliable starting quarterback. Nick Fairley can't stay healthy, taking away the Suh-Fairley combination that would have undoubtedly created matchup nightmares for pretty much every offensive line. The secondary stays the same as it was in 2010. The Lions finish 7-9 and third in the NFC North.

10. Houston Texans

• Best Case and Most Likely Scenario: Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson all retain their 2010 form all season long. Owen Daniels is finally able to stay healthy for an entire season. The secondary is much improved with the additions of Jonathan Joseph and Danieal Manning. Rookie J.J. Watt comes out of nowhere and wins the defensive rookie of the year award. Mario Williams, Demeco Ryans, and 2009 defensive rookie of the year Brian Cushing help the defense skyrocket from its next to last ratings in 2010 all the way up to the middle of the pack. The Colts stumble with an injured Peyton Manning, allowing the Texans to finally break through and win the AFC South at 11-5.

• Worst Case Scenario: It all hinges on the Colts. The Texans are finally good enough to win the division (Yes, the classic "Just when I think I'm out they pulled me back in" team. The "Texans finally get to the playoffs" angle is in a tie for the most overused and incorrect pre-season pick with "Chargers win Super Bowl". Wait, why am I trying to make myself look stupid?) and the Colts are now just non-dominant (not sure if that's a word) enough to lose it. If Manning comes back perfectly healthy and the Texans secondary collapses, then it's back to 7-9 for the Texans and I'll look like double the idiot for ditching the Colts when they still had a healthy Manning.

9. New Orleans Saints

• Best Case Scenario: Drew Brees is still Drew Brees, the running back situation doesn't fall apart like last year, and the offensive line continues to dominate. The defense stays pretty much the same. The Saints go 12-4 and win the NFC South and go all the way to the Super Bowl. Basically, everything stays the same from last year, only they get a little more lucky.

• Worst Case Scenario: Everything stays the same as last year, only they get more unlucky. Dumb losses (like the Browns' game and the Cardinals' game, where the Saints had two turnovers returned for touchdowns) sink the Saints to 10-6 and a potential near miss in the playoffs.

• Most Likely Scenario: Again, everything remains the same. The Saints are the team with the least amount of turnover from last year to this year. Last year, the Saints had some terrible luck and still grabbed the five seed. In 2009, the Saints had great luck and won the Super Bowl. This year? There's no telling what they're luck will be, but it's gotta even out eventually, right? This is the year that the Saints get average luck. The Saints go 12-4, but lose the division to the Falcons.

8. San Diego Chargers

• Best Case Scenario and Most Likely Scenario: We're invoking the NFL luck rule again here. I know that picking somebody to be lucky because "they're overdue for it" is illogical and incorrect, but that's how the NFL works. If a team is abnormally lucky or unlucky, it usually swings back the other way or at least to average. The Chargers had the number one offense and the number one defense (both in terms of yards gained/given up), but they allowed a whopping NINE special teams touchdowns. That won't happen again this year. It can't. There is simply too much turnover from year to year on the special teams squad to allow that to happen again. That's what happened with the 09 Steelers, and they made the Super Bowl the next year. The Chargers happened to have the misfortune of one of the crappiest coverage teams in recent memory. Assuming everything stays relatively the same, the Chargers should go 12-4 and win the division. The worst case scenario? Everything that happened last year. How did you like my one sentence worst case scenario? At this point, I'm practically screaming that I'm too lazy to think of intelligent arguments today.

7. Baltimore Ravens

• Best Case Scenario: Like their counterparts in the AFC East, the Ravens finally get over the hump and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs. Anquan Boldin flourishes in his second year with the Ravens' offensive system with Joe Flacco, a reliable quarterback who never seems to do anything stupid. The defense gets back to top 5 form. The pass rush gets to opposing QBs early and often in games. Ed Reed continues to be a dominant safety in the NFL. The Ravens find themselves primed for a Super Bowl run, but get eliminated in the AFC Conference Championship.

• Worst Case Scenario: Get ready for another token "I'm too lazy to write a good worst case" paragraph (Sorry, folks. I'll be better tomorrow. Wait, tomorrow is the last day of Summer. Scratch that, you'll get an even worse version of me tomorrow. I know, I'm sorry.) The Ravens get beaten by the Steelers again. I dont see this Ravens team not making the playoffs, but the worst case is they're not better then any of the teams in a top-heavy AFC.

Alright, I typed that last paragraph with my head clunking against my desk and my eyelids starting to close and I have a fantasy draft in 20 minutes. Uh-oh