NFL Preview Column Part II

Welcome to Part II of the preview.

SOMEBODY'S GOTTA BE AVERAGE: 18-22

22. Minnesota Vikings

• Best Case Scenario: Donovan McNabb regains some of the accuracy and mobility that he had in Philadelphia. One positive is that he got benched for Rex Grossman last year, so there's nowhere to go from that but up. Adrian Peterson continues to be one of the best running backs in the league (his vision and cutbacks are just amazing to watch) without the fumble problems are knee injuries that have been the lone stains on an otherwise promising career. A talented young nucleus of receivers led by Percy Harvin provide suitable targets for McNabb and, in the years to come, Christian Ponder. The defense regains the dominant form that it had in 2009, led by Jared Allen and a healthy secondary. The Vikings take advantage of an easy schedule to finish 10-6 and grab a wild card spot.

• Worst Case Scenario: Donovan McNabb proves once and for all that he is washed up, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns as the Vikings start the season 0-4. Leslie Frazier panics and inserts a not-yet-ready Christian Ponder at quarterback, leaving Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin as the only assets on a depleted offense. The banged-up secondary gets torched, although the Vikings are still strong against the run. The Vikings finish at a dismal 5-11. Thankfully, Brad Childress isn't walking through that door.

• Most Likely Scenario: McNabb switches over to his "savvy veteran" mode (Short throws, accurate, a few long ones, no scrambling, each hit reminding us that his ribs may or may not be made out of paper at this point). Adrian Peterson is still a monster behind a respectable O-Line (only gave up 17 sacks last year. What a shame. If only Brett Favre had to play behind the Raiders' O-line, he would have retired years ago.) The receiving corps isn't as bad as last year, although not as good as 2009. The defense returns to respectability. However, another great year from the Packers and a breakout year from the Lions prevent the Vikings from reaching the playoffs. The Vikings finish at 7-9.

21. Cleveland Browns

• Best Case and Most Likely Scenario: Second Year Quarterback Colt McCoy provides hope for the future by throwing for over 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns. The offense once again revolves around bruising back Peyton Hillis (I wouldn't want to attempt to tackle that man even if I were an NFL Player. It looks like you're trying to tackle a Hummer) who rushes for 1,300 yards. The Browns do not generate much of a pass rush from a defensive line that consists of mostly rookies. The secondary is anchored by Sheldon Brown and Usama Young. Linebacker Scott Fujita serves as the quarterback of the defense. The Browns take advantage of an easy first three months (Cincy,Miami,Tennessee,Oakland,San Fran,Houston,St Louis, Jacksonville) to get off to a 7-4 start, after which they fall back down to 8-8 after a murderous December (Baltimore twice and Pittsburgh twice).

• Worst Case Scenario: Colt McCoy proves that he can't manage the offense, prompting every NFL junkie to look back at the stats from last year, see that he went 2-6 as the starter, and then the floodgates open. Criticism starts pouring down on McCoy, while ignoring the fact that he might as well have Sarah Jessica Parker starting at wide receiver. McCoy's confidence is shaken Chad Henne style, and he goes in to a year-long (if not career-long) downwards slide. The rookies on defense for Cleveland prove to be busts that cant bull their way through offensive linemen like they did in college. The Browns tease their fans by always staying at 2-3 or 5-4 before free-falling faster than Charlie Sheen (Sheen references aren't outdated yet. I hope.) during their final five games to finish a disappoint season at 6-10.

20. Arizona Cardinals

• Best Case and Most Likely Scenario: Kevin Kolb lives up to his potential in his first sustained starting job. Larry Fitzgerald finally has a half decent quarterback to throw to him (We need to come up with a name for good receivers that are saddled with crappy quarterbacks. I vote for this to be called the Delhomme Zone. It's kinda like the Tyson zone, except for terrible QB's instead of incurably crazy and illogical people). Rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson turns in to a playmaker and a dangerous return man. The defense improves from it's ranking of 29th to about 24th with Paris Lenon and Joey Porter leading the way. Arizona becomes another all offense no defense team, finishes at 8-8, and finishes second in the dismal NFC West. Just know that a small part of me dies any time I have to talk seriously about anything involving the NFC West.

• Worst Case Scenario: Kevin Kolb turns in to a gunslinger that constantly has to play from behind because the defense keeps letting big plays happen. Beanie Wells continues to be Beanie Wells, and the offensive line does not help whatsoever. The secondary never fully recovers from the loss of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Patrick Peterson isn't experienced/talented enough to even attempt to fill that hole. The Cardinals fall to 5-11 and are a threat to move to L.A. in a few years.

19. Miami Dolphins

• Best Case Scenario: Chad Henne improves enough to make Brandon Marshall relevant again and proves to be a late blooming quarterback. Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas duplicate the success that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had running the wildcat offense. Jake Long continues to anchor one of the best offensive lines in the league. Defensively, the switch to the 3-4 highlights the talents of Paul Soliai, a young defensive tackle that allowed star linebacker Cameron Wake (14.5 sacks last year) to come up the middle relatively unblocked. Breakout years from Vontae Davis and Sean Smith elevate an under appreciated defense to "best in the league" status. The Dolphins upstage the Jets, go 10-6, and grab the 5 seed.

• Worst Case Scenario: Chad Henne isn't a late bloomer and is just plain awful (the more likely scenario). Reggie Bush can't recapture any of his USC magic and does not date anybody that even approaches Kim Kardashian, kinda hard to do when you're a single football player in Miami. Brandon Marshall is the league's newest player to officially land in the Delhomme Zone. Defensively, the switch to the 3-4 system overwhelms the secondary, who can't win the one on one matchups necessary to make the 3-4 work. The Dolphins sink to 6-10 and dead last in the AFC East.

• Most Likely Scenario: Henne improves from last year (not a hard thing to do unless you're name is Tarvaris Jackson). Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas replicate most of the success that Williams and Brown had with the wildcat. Brandon Marshall and his cast of complimentary receivers raise their stats up from last year, but not by a large amount. The defense continues to be a force that will rank in the top 5 of the league. However, a tough schedule will limit the Dolphins to an 8-8 finish.

18. Kansas City Chiefs

• Best Case Scenario: Everything unfolds in the exact same way that it did last year. Jamaal Charles continues to be one of the most explosive running backs in the league. Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe continue to be one of the most underrated QB-WR tandems in the league. The defense continues to be average. The Chiefs finish 10-6 and grab a wild card spot. The odds of all of this happening while moving from the easiest schedule in the league to the hardest is something like 4,000,000 to 1.

• Worst Case Scenario and Most likely Scenario: The Chiefs take a bunch of steps backward, purely because of the schedule. Games against the Chargers (twice), the Jets, the Patriots, the Dolphins, the Colts, the Steelers, and the Packers will all contribute to a significant dop-off in overall production. The Chiefs will be facing an elite quarterback in six games on their schedule. The Chiefs only had to face three last year (and none of them were at their best). The Chiefs have enough easy games and winnable games to finish 8-8, but it will be significantly tougher than last year,

IF YOU AIN'T FIRST, YOU'RE LAST: 13-17

17. Chicago Bears

• Best Case Scenario: Another team where the best case scenario was pretty much realized last year. I shouldn't have to bother writing it down. Just look at the Bears' whole 2010 season and consider that the best case for this year. Specifically, there's no way that they win so many close games, get so many easy opponents, or get as many lucky breaks (Calvin Johnson's nullified catch, a weak NFC that allowed them to claim the two seed with an 11-5 record, and getting to play an emotionally drained Seattle team in the divisional round. They even could have made it to the Super Bowl if Jay Cutler didn't tear his MCL. The Packers had so many opportunities to put that game away, but they kept blowing it. I'm telling you, the Bears were LUCKY.)

• Worst Case Scenario: 4-12. No joke. The Bears were a slightly more extreme example of the 2006 Jets. OK quarterback, great running game, a lucky win or two, a very easy schedule, and a win or two by pure chance. The only difference is, the Jets played a Wild Card game against a Pats team that should have gone to the Super Bowl (that was the year they collapsed in Indy). The Bears had the luxury of playing Seattle. The next season, that Jets team imploded in to a 4-12 mess. The Bears have an aging defense, an inconsistent quarterback, and nobody that tied them to that 11-5 record. You always know that the Patriots would never lose it the year after a Super Bowl win because they had Tom Brady and no team that had an elite QB like Brady should ever finish below 9-7 for any reason. I don't feel any of that with Chicago.

• Most Likely Scenario: 9-7. I know, it's an optimistic prediction, but the Bears do have some winnable games on their schedule. As long as the front seven can pressure opposing quarterbacks and hold opposing running games to reasonable yardage, then the Bears can get away with another smoke and mirrors 9-7. The only thing that could really submarine the team is a porous offensive line (remember that 10 sack game against the Giants?) that didn't look any better in the preseason. Starting at left tackle (the most important position because it protects the quarterback's blind side) is JaMarcus Webb (feel the irony!!) that gave up 11 sacks last year. 11 sacks! They should just call him the Human Turnstile at this point. Anyways, I predict another good, not great, year for the Bears before the wheels fall off in 2012.

16. New York Giants

• Best Case Scenario: Eli Manning throws less interceptions than his league-leading total of 25 in 2010. Both Nicks and Manningham have "Top 30 receivers in the league" seasons to make up for the loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. The front seven will have to dominate almost to the extent of the 2007 team, which does not seem unreasonable considering the Giants have two players who had sack totals in the double digits. However, the Giants have a secondary that's very susceptible to getting injured. As long as everybody in the secondary stays healthy, the Giants should be just fine. The best case scenario for the Giants are that the Eagles tumble and the Giants, winning every game that they should win and even a few that they shouldn't have, go 11-5 and steal the division title from Philly.

• Worst Case Scenario: The Giants' offense, hampered by the loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss, sputters. Eli Manning throws just as many interceptions as the year before and Ahmad Bradshaw gets stymied when opponents realize that it's very easy to turn the Giants' offense in to a one dimensional entity. The secondary breaks down, with long term injuries to Kenny Phyllips and Corey Webster. Because of these injuries, Michael Vick and Tony Romo are able to light up the scoreboard against the Giants, who finish with a 7-9 record (featuring an 0-4 mark against the Cowboys and Eagles). After the season, some members of the New York media turn in to cannibals and eat Tom Coughlin alive.

• Most Likely Scenario: Exactly in the middle. The Giants finish with a respectable 9-7 record, just missing out on a playoff spot against the Cowboys on the last day of the season. The offense drops from a top 5 offense to a better than average offense with an equal chance of knocking you out early and knocking themselves out early. The defense is solid, but not anywhere near the 2007 team. The secondary sustains several short-term injuries which cost the Giants a game or two. The season includes another heartbreaking loss to Phyilly on a last second touchdown pass by Michael Vick. Tom Coughlin turns in to a human volcano and actually explodes afterwards (I'm not ruling this out).

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Best Case Scenario: A breakout year from Josh Freeman propels Tampa Bay in to the playoffs as the 5 seed. A strong offensive line and more punishing running from LeGarette Blount establishes the Bucs identity as a strong, physical team that can make big plays and get first downs on a regular basis. Rookies Da'Quan Bowers and Mason Foster excel in an underrated Tampa Bay defense. Young corner Aqib Talib and ageless wonder Ronde Barber make a great combination at corner, rounding out a complete defense.

• Worst Case Scenario: Josh Freeman, despite all signs to the contrary, regresses in his third year. LeGarrette Blount proves to be a one year wonder, taking away a key element in Tamp Bay's offense. Da'Quan Bowers' bad knees prevent him from being a capable pro. Aqib Talib's off the field incidents (he is currently indicted on reckless endangerment charges) catch up with him, taking away another piece of Tampa's young core. Ronde Barber retires after the season and Tampa Bay becomes a less dramatic example of the NBA's mid 80s Rockets teams (a talented young nucleus that was well positioned for the future self combusts after troubles with the law, injuries, and overall bad luck).

• Most Likely Scenario: The offense takes another big step forward, advancing from the 19th ranked offense all the way up to number 12. The defense, however, prevents the Bucs from reaching the playoffs. The loss of savvy veteran Barrett Ruud is not only a severe blow to the veteran leadership, but it also takes away the perfect middle linebacker needed to play the Tampa 2 style that the Bucs have found so much success with over the years. The Bucs finish out the year at 9-7, and are primed to assert themselves in the division race for the next 5 to 6 years.

SURPRISE PICK OF THE YEAR 

14. Indianapolis Colts

• Best Case Scenario: Peyton Manning's injury does not cost him any playing time or cause any long term problems. The old guard of Wayne, Clark, Freeney, Mathis does not show any signs of age. Nobody on the offensive line gets injured, so Peyton Manning never has to coordinate protections or rush throws. The Colts take advantage of a semi-depleted AFC South to cruise to a 13-3 record and the number 1 seed in the AFC. Also, I look really stupid for picking the Colts to collapse.

• Worst Case Scenario and Slice's Most Likely Scenario: Peyton Manning is never the same. Neck surgery is serious stuff. Something is going to be a little different for the rest of the season. Maybe his throws won't be quite as on point. Maybe he'll miss a wide open Reggie Wayne a few times this season as everybody wonders where Peyton Manning has gone. I'm not saying he'll fall off the face of the Earth, I'm just saying that he won't be as effective as before. Not only that, center Jeff Saturday is getting up there (he turns 36 soon), and the whole left side of the offensive line consists of rookies. That's kind of important since rookies make mistakes. A mistake from a quarterback leads to a turnover. A mistake from an O-Lineman leads to his QB being drilled by a vicious hit. Manning's body can only take so many more of them before it starts to give out. Not one of the Colts' important players are below thirty. Facing a younger, better prepared AFC, the Colts will still post a respectable 10-6 record. However, this is the year where the Texans finally break through to win the division. The Colts go 10-6, and get beaten out by the 10-6 Ravens and the 11-5 Jets for the Wild Card spots.

13. Dallas Cowboys

• Best Case Scenario and Most Likely: Romo suffers no lingering side effects from the injury and returns to form. Felix Jones turns in to the poor man's Jamaal Charles, a running back with impressive acceleration and good vision at the line of scrimmage. The offensive line does an adequate job of protecting Romo, who finds any of his big play wide receivers early and often in the season. The Cowboys achieve some form of competency on defense, an area where they have underachieved for so many years, and finish at 10-6, good enough for the dubious "best team to miss the playoffs" honors.

• Worst Case Scenario: Tony Romo comes back from his injury and tries to win games by himself and ends up getting picked off when he throws in to double coverages. The new additions on the offensive line give Romo no protection at all. As a result, Romo reinjures himself and misses a large majority of the season. The defense remains just as putrid as it was last year. The Cowboys fall to 6-10 and last in the division. Jerry Jones fires everybody up to and including the night shift janitor.

Part III is coming tomorrow night with 12-7 The Playoff Pretenders and 6-1 The Super Bowl Contenders. Wait for it.........Wait for it............Wait for it......... WE CAN BUILD ON THIS!!!!!!