Week Two NFL Picks

If Week One was any indication, we're in for a wild NFL season. Cam Newton took the league by storm, throwing for over 400 yards (albeit against a decrepit Cardinals defense) and looking like he has the chance to be an elite QB in a few years. The Dolphins and the Patriots engaged in an epic "How many times can we blow a coverage in a single game?" contest, leading to both quarterbacks throwing for over 400 yards, including a franchise record 512 yards for Brady. As a long suffering Jets fan, I can personally attest to the fact that Tom Brady never stops finding ways to punch you in the gut. Even when he isn't playing you. More depressing still, my two Super Bowl picks (the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburgh Steelers) lost by a combined score of 65-19. If you're like me and your picks did terribly (or well) just keep repeating the following. DONT FREAK OUT, IT'S STILL WEEK ONE!!!! You've got to go with your gut as far as picks go at least until after Week 3. Two cardinal rules of picking football games are to never panic over a team doing poorly unless there is solid reason to believe that it will happen again (Example: There is reason to believe that the Colts will do just as pitifully again because they don't have Manning. There is absolutely no way that the Steelers are going to turn the ball over seven times again or get blown out by 28 points.). On the flip side, you always want to be a little on edge when your picks are doing too well. Too many teams hit their ceiling way too early in the year, and then fizzle down the stretch. Your job during the first three weeks of the season is to stick with your gut and to figure out which teams are headed downhill and make sure to stop picking them the moment they don't look as fantastic as they did in the first few weeks. So, without further ado, here are the picks for Week Two of the NFL Season.

VS.

BUFFALO BILLS VS OAKLAND RAIDERS

       The Bills are a team that I would put on my "peaking too soon" list. The Bills dismantled the AFC West Champs last week, but nobody believes that they're as good as they played that day. Still, I see the Bills beating the Raiders this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick looks dialed in right now, having thrown for four touchdowns against the Chiefs. The Raiders gutted out a tough win last week, but it was against a mess of a Denver team. I wouldnt be surprised if the Raiders pulled another one out, but I expect the Bills to go to 2-0.  By the way, I saw some camera shots of the few Bills fans that were in Arrowhead Stadium last week. They were just standing with their mouths wide open and this look of disbelief in their eyes. The Bills have thoroughly stunk for so long that their fans actually can't believe something good happened to them. At least for now, the Bills look like a mini-sleeper at the very least. Ryan Fitzpatrick decimates the Raiders for three touchdowns. Bills' fans should take a picture of their 2-0 record, because it wont last very long with New England, Philly, and the Giants all in the next few weeks.

VS.

CHICAGO BEARS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

     I'm going with the Saints in this one because they absolutely could have beaten the Packers with a few breaks here and there (most notably making a concerted effort to tackle Randall Cobb during his 108 yard kickoff return). The Bears had everything go perfectly for them in a 30-12 dismantling of the Falcons. The Saints' secondary got shredded by Aaron Rodgers, and I don't expect a much different result when they go up against Jay Cutler. However, the Bears' secondary really wasn't excellent during the game. If the pass rush didn't get to Matt Ryan and force him to make mistakes, he could have made some plays. White was open a few times, Tony Gonzalez got seperation, there were a lot of things he could have done. The Saints' offensive line is much better than the Falcons, and I would go as far as to say that right guard Jahri Evans is the best in the game (only allowed two sacks through 16 games last year). Drew Brees will dissect the Bears' secondary while Mark Ingram gets more carries and gradually becomes more and more involved as he learns the playbook. The Bears will keep the game close, but lose on a killer last minute interception from Cutler. I'm going with the Saints in a 34-30 shootout.

VS.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VERSUS CLEVELAND BROWNS

     It's shocking how far the Colts have fallen since 2009. 2009 Colts fan: I can't believe that Jim Caldwell took the starters out, we could have gone undefeated! 2011 Colts Fan: I cant believe we allowed that big punt return, we would have only been down 20 at halftime to the Texans if that didn't happen! As an interesting side note, the over/under is 10.5 on the number of eye blinks for Jim Caldwell all game. The guy might be statue or perhaps a cadaver that's been propped up. I'm not even sure if he has a pulse. One thing that I am sure about is that the Colts won't lose this game. Once you start losing to a team from Cleveland, then it might be time to put your current roster in the paper shredder and start over. I can't picture the Colts losing at home to the Browns. Cleveland accumulated over 100 penalty yards (In a related story, I've never watched a game in which a team that had over 100 penalty yards won.) and made several stupid mistakes on defense (I keep picturing somebody from Cleveland trying to call the play in the huddle, and then watching AJ Green run in to the endzone from the corner of their eye, and then scratching his head wondering what happened. Pat Shurmur, my friend, you have your work cut out for you) in a 27-17 loss to the Bengals. No,really. A team lost to the Bengals. That wasn't a typo. No matter how depressing the brief Kerry Collins era is, I just can't see Indy, with all the veteran leadership on that team, losing to Cleveland. The Colts pull it out in a 24-14 win.

VS.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS DETROIT LIONS

     And the Chiefs are decomposing already. I would have at least thought that the Chiefs would flirt with .500 for about half the season before their downward spiral, but it looks like Kansas City is wasting no time kicking off the trend. Detroit, in stark contrast, is on a big upward trend. The Lions survived against Tampa Bay in a 27-20 thriller in the most underrated game of Week One (Big plays, lead changes, nearly a last second comeback by Tampa Bay, it was a good game). The Lions laid out for everybody to see just how much of a liability Tampa Bay's secondary was. Nobody in that whole defense had the size or the athleticism to match up with Calvin Johnson, so he looked like the token dominant tall guy in a high school pickup basketball game. Why am I telling you this? Because Kansas City is worse. Not even a little worse. Much worse. Eric Berry is gone for the season, which puts a defense that already experienced what it's like to be in way over your head in an even more overmatched position. The only hope the Chiefs have of beating opponents is to outscore them. I don't know if you've noticed, but I can't remember the last time an all-offense, no-defense team even approached the Super Bowl. You're not gonna believe this, but I don't think it's a coincidence. The Lions win 31-20.

VS.

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS CAROLINA PANTHERS

        The principle of not overreacting to teams also applies to players. Cam Newton had a great first game, but will it carry over to a much tougher Packers' team? Sure, there's reason to be excited about Newton, but expect a much more limited role this week. The Packers' defense got shredded by Drew Brees last week, but I don't expect that will happen again with a rookie quarterback and only one or two big play options for Newton to throw to. Although this Carolina team will be exciting to watch throughout the season, I say that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers score almost at will in this game. A rookie keeping up with Aaron Rodgers in a shootout against a much better defense than anything he's ever seen? Not in this lifetime. Packers 42, Panthers 20.

VS.

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS TENNESSEE TITANS

     Before I make this pick, I need to adress something about the Ravens' performance last week. I kept hearing talk all week about how "the Ravens finally know how to win" and even "they're my Super Bowl pick right now by a mile". Let's all take a deep breath and agree that the Ravens are nowhere near as great as Pittsburgh made them look last week. Come on. Deep Breath. Inhale. Exhale. Good, we're on the same page. That being said, Baltimore is a very good football team that may or may not have taken a leap in Week one, but I'm afraid that's all that can be said about them at this point because, again, IT"S WEEK ONE!!!!!!!!! However, I expect the Ravens to run roughshod over the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have an underrated defense, but there's really nothing there that I can't see the Ravens handling. Ray Rice looks better than ever, Joe Flacco made sharp throws and great reads all game, and Anquan Boldin's route running is just amazing to watch. The only way I can see the Titans getting close in this one is if Chris Johnson has several of his long overdue "By the time you see me I'll be a good 10 yards past you" runs where he just hits a gap in the O-Line and apparently turns in to a human Ferrari for the rest of the run. Even if he has three of those (see the highlights from Week 2 of the 2009 Season Titans vs Texans if you want to see an example of what I mean), I still dont think it will be enough for a Titans' offense (led by an anywhere from 70 to 90 percent washed up Matt Hasselbeck) to carry the Titans by the Ravens. Ravens 31 Titans 10

VS.

TAMPA BAY BUCS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS

     Both teams looked awful on opposing sides of the football. The Bucs' secondary gave up big gains and generated no push at the line of scrimmage all day. We've already covered their inadequacies. But what about Minnesota? We all know that Adrian Peterson is pretty much a sure thing every week, but where is the passing game? Donovan McNabb passed for, no joke, 37 yards all game. I don't play football, but I'm occasionally the QB for short pass plays in gym class. I threw it a little bit ahead of the fastest kid in the class on a 5 yard drag route, and he took it in from 50 yards out for the touchdown. In that game, I just passed for more yards in one play than McNabb did for the whole game. Kind of scary, isn't it? My question here is this. You have a great O-Line and quite possibly the best RB alive, WHY DON'T YOU USE HIM??? Throw more screens! Run checkdown plays for him! Any of those options beats McNabb (By the way, you know what McNabb is like at this point? A person in a mid-life crisis. He's having the football equivalent of a mid-life crisis. Instead of accepting his limitations and sticking to what he's good at, you could tell that he was just dying to try and scramble and throw deep passes like he was 23 again. All he needs to do is purchase a motorcycle or a convertible to complete the effect). Meanwhile, the Bucs need to get back to a balanced offense that pounds the ball with LaGarrette Blount and chews up clock to keep the defense off the field. I say that Tampa Bay rights the ship (I would like to accept the 2011 Worst Pun of the Year with that joke) with a 20-17 victory.

VS.

JACKSONVILLE JAGS VS NEW YORK JETS

     The Jets dodged a huge bullet at home against Dallas last week. I honestly dont know how to feel about that win. On the one hand, Sanchez took a big step forward and looked like he was developing in to the franchise quarterback that we thought he'd be. On the other hand, the Jets abandoned their Running and Defense Wins philosophy that led them to so much playoff success over the years. The Jets made the big plays that I never see them make, but they had to get a little lucky to put themselves in the positions to make those plays. Ultimately, I dont know what to expect from the Jets this week. Fortunately, I have a pretty good idea as to what I should expect from the Jags this week after they grinded out an ugly win over the Tennessee Titans. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert will have to face what might be the most complicated defense in the league after relying heavily on the running game in a close home win over one of the most unstable teams in the league. How do I think this game is gonna end up? Take a wild guess. Jets by at least 10.

VS.

ARIZONA CARDINALS VS WASHINGTON REDSKIINS

     Along with all the chatter about how good the Ravens are and how much of a choke artist Tony Romo is (Noooooooo really?! I never noticed.) I heard some snippets about the Redskins. You've gotta love the token overreaction to Week One and you really can't blame columnists for looking for a juicy angle. but really? "Surprise team of the year." "A dark horse in the NFC." "It sure is a football team!!" OK, I made that last one up. Still, they're a bit overblown. Have people considered that the Giants could just be a bad team? Whatever people predict, I see a relapse for the Redskins at home against Arizona. Kevin Kolb is just the kind of passer that can pick apart a weak secondary like Washington's. That's not to say that the Redskins won't keep it close, but I see Kevin Kolb throwing for at least three hundred yards in a 30-27 win for Zona. Sorry for the lack of substance about the actual game, but I can't find anything interesting to say about this one. I'm sorry guys. Just know that I try.

VS.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS

     Welcome to my Lock of the Week! The Seahawks let up two huge returns to Ted Ginn Jr last week in the span of less than a minute, turned the ball over three times, and just barely got over 200 yards of total offense (200 yards of total offense is football's Mendoza Line. One or two games beneath it is OK, but you've got a problem if you regularly have games where you get less than 200 yards). Meanwhile, the Steelers are absolutely ticked off about their embarassing loss to Baltimore. Taken as a whole, this game is like waving a steak in front of an angry lion. You can guess which team is the steak. Steelers 35, Seahawks 17

VS.

DALLAS COWBOYS VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

     And Tony Romo does it again! If he isn't already considered the Karl Malone of football, he's getting very close (I've always wondered if Romo just stops after three quarters in other things. Does he not play the fourth quarter in Madden? Does he complete three-fourths of his grocery shopping, then just walk out? We need a TV show where athletes are forced to live up to their sports reputation in everyday life.). Romo starts off the game very well, and then something changes. He starts getting that "It's just not in me" look in his eye and starts throwing passes that have no arc and fly off three feet away from his target. Other than that, Romo's just about the best clutch QB I've ever seen. However, the Cowboys should be able to dominate a hapless 49ers team that got two touchdowns off of Ted Ginn's returns. The Cowboys are almost a complete team. Besides the secondary (awful) and the O-Line (will get better as the season goes along), the Cowboys have just about everything you would want on a football team. However, the 49ers have become a popular upset pick (Popular upset picks never win. If they did, we would all be studio analysts. See where I'm going with this one?) due to the fact that the Cowboys choked away that game last week. People are forgetting things like "Isn't Alex Smith terrible?" and "Don't they play in the NFC West, where my high school's intramural flag football team would look decent" and most importantly, again, "Isn't Alex Smith terrible?" This one won't even be close. Cowboys win 30-14.

VS.

BENGALS VS BRONCOS

     Uh-oh. Could we have a (gasp followed by shocked face) sleeper in Cincy? Their next few games (they only face one team with a wining record last year, and that team is Indy) are pretty much the biggest gift a football team can receive. All that's missing is the big red bow on top. If the Bengals play reasonably well and come up with some big plays, it's not entirely unfeasible that the Bengals could be 4-2 or 5-1 in their next six games. Far-fetched, but definitely possible. Meanwhile, the Broncos had a lackluster game against the Raiders last week, losing 23-20. The defense allowed 150 rushing yards to Darren McFadden, not a huge deal until you realize that a Honda Civic might not be able to make it 5 yards behind that mess of an offensive line. On another note, I would say that judging from the boos raining down on Kyle Orton throughout the game on Monday, we can write the Broncos off as another team that does not have home field advantage this season. The Bengals win 23-20 as Cedric Benson runs for over 150 yards.

VS.

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS HOUSTON TEXANS

     Let's agree, just like we did for the Ravens, that the Texans are definitely not as good as the Colts made them look last week. And that the Dolphins are not as bad as the Patriots made them look last week. To be honest, I didn't expect the Dolphins to keep the game that close. I was expecting the inevitable 34-7 blowout that just happens whenever the Pats want to make a statement. Still, I'm not quite sure that the Dolphins' best will be able to beat the Texans. Miami's one fatal flaw, the atrocious secondary, will be exposed yet again as Schaub throws for over 400 yards. Arian Foster will go for 75 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries in his first game back. I'm calling this one a Texans' win by the score of 31-20.

VS.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

     It seems like everything that can go wrong for the Chargers ends up going wrong. I'm not sure how often kickers get injured when they're untouched by the other team on the play, but it's gotta be something like once a year. The Chargers almost lost to a clearly inferior team at home because they're kicker was out and they had to go for it on 4th down in field goal range several times because Nate Kaeding wasn't there. I'm convinced that this kind of thing only happens to the Chargers. Meanwhile, nothing of the sort ever happens to New England (I just slammed my head on my desk repeatedly), who dismantled Miami on Monday Night. The Chargers definitely wont let Brady have the same degree of success that he had against Miami, but I really cant think of another football team that would let that happen. The utter smackdown that Brady layed on the Miami Dolphins' defense was borderline cruel and unusual. In a semi-related story, Tom Brady's Male Uggs commercial was also cruel and unusual, but that's a different topic. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chargers pulled it out, as the Patriots showed that their defense might have gotten worse since last season (how is this even possible?). However, I say that the Chargers fall a turnover short in this one as the Pats win 28-23.

VS.

NEW YORK GIANTS VS ST LOUIS RAMS

     Ouch. I'm not quite sure I expected the Giants to lay this big of a goose egg on Opening Day, not against the Redskins anyways. But they did. When your defense makes Rex Grossman (REX GROSSMAN!!!) look good, then it might be time to re-evaluate things. Just a suggestion. By the way, the Rams played the Eagles a lot tougher than most people give them credit for. The score was close until the fourth quarter, when the Eagles started to pull away. Really, can you blame the Rams for getting half their starting defense injured? Can you blame Sam Bradford when his receivers seemingly let passes sail right through their hands like they were made of glass or something? No, you can't. The Rams are another team that's much better than the box score would show. Sadly, I'm beginning to suspect that the Giants are not. An already beaten up secondary will get picked on some more on Monday Night as the Rams beat the Giants 17-7.

VS.

GAME OF THE WEEK: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS ATLANTA FALCONS

     And we're finally at the game of the week. About time. And here is my controversial pick of the week (It could be interperated as gutsy, moronic, depserately trying to support my Super Bowl Pick even though I don't totally believe in them any more, or none of the above. Whatever controversial means to you.). The Falcons upset the Eagles in a 38-35 shootout. Since you're taking the time to read this, I feel obligated to back that statement up. The Falcons have tremendous depth at not only receiver, but overall passing options. Lockdown corners such as Nnamdi Asomugha work best when they can focus in on one receiver and dont have to switch around every play. The Falcons force you to switch around every play because of their depth at the receiver position. Plus, I don't see any linebacker on the Eagles that is athletic enough to match up with Tony Gonzalez, meaning that he'll probably haul in at least 6 passes. The Eagles were gashed up the middle by Cadillac Williams last week, so what do you think Michael Turner will do to them? Not to mention the fact that this could be the week where the Eagles' questionable offensive line catches up with Michael Vick. We all know it's only a matter of time before it happens, and the Falcons' defense is in that "This is NOT happening again" mindset that defenses usually get in after bad games. I expect this game to be almost a doppelganger of the Saints-Packers game last week. Two good teams, questionable defenses, amazing offenses, great QB's, no shortage of receiving talent, it's all there. In the end, expect a Falcons win as Matty Ice scores one touchdown too many for Vick and the Eagles.
That is the end of my Week Two picks. So long, enjoy Week 2, and see you next time for week 3 picks.