SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS: 6-1
6. New York Jets
- Best Case Scenario: Mark Sanchez finally has a breakout year and leads the Jets to a first-round bye. The new veteran additions at wide receiver serve as suitable replacements for Cotchery and Edwards (especially Burress, who pulls the wide receiver equivalent of what Michael Vick did last year of quarterback). The new rookies on the O-Line integrate seamlessly with the veterans. The defense is a force to be reckoned with, and Muhammad Wilkerson contributes double digit sack numbers. Darelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie maintain their position as one of the best corner combinations in the league (especially Revis, who at times looks dangerously close to "The other team's best receiver might as well not show up today" levels. ) The Jets finish at 13-3, and win the Super Bowl.
- Worst Case Scenario: Mark Sanchez regresses in his third year (equivalent to dropping dead from a "being a franchise QB" standpoint.), forcing an overrated running game to carry the team behind an offensive line that struggles as the rookies take a full year to learn all of the different protection schemes. The Jets' 3-4 scheme can't live up to its full potential with Sione Pouha starting at nose tackle, and the Jets' defense takes a fall from grace not unlike what we saw with the Ravens defense. A strong schedule doesn't help matters at all. The Jets finish 8-8 and watch the Pats win the Super Bowl.
- Most Likely Scenario: Sanchez continues to develop in his third year, but doesn't break out until year 4. We find out if Sanchez is a game manager, or a game winner. Shonn Greene bounces back from his sophomore slump to run for 1,000 yards. The offensive line isnt as good as it was in past years, with veteran Damien Woody gone. Holmes and Burress form a fearsome tandem of WRs (my candidates for starters on the all-felony team) and create severe matchup problems for opponents. The defense stays in the top 5, getting no better nor worse than last year. The Jets finish the season at 11-5, grab the 5 seed in the AFC East, and go to at least the divisional round of the playoffs. In the words of Bart Scott, CANT WAIT!!!!!! Also, Bart Scott definitely joins Rasheed Wallace and others in the "I wouldn't want to be around him when he's pissed" Hall of Fame. By the way, I love how Bart Scott called out everybody who picked the Pats from ESPN after the game. I vote that every time there's a big upset, one guy from the team gets to call out 5 people that picked against them and insult them. It can't miss.
5. Green Bay Packers
- Best Case Scenario: See: 2010 NFL Season. The best case scenario for the Packers is that everything that happened last year happens again, except that the Packers get a first round bye this year and can play their playoff games at home.
- Worst Case and Most Likely Scenario: Super Bowl Hangover alert!! We've seen this time and again with the Steelers in 09, the Saints in 2010, the Giants in 08, the list goes on and on. One might not think "They've got a big target on their back" is reason enough to not win the Super Bowl again, but it is. When you make a Super Bowl pick, you also have to consider history. Last year was the first Super Bowl in a long time where two popular preseason Super Bowl favorites met. Most other years, it's been either one or zero preseason favorites. Super Bowl Winners that don't get better the next season or aren't significantly ahead of the rest of the league dont repeat as champs. The only ones to do it in the last decade were the Pats. They had a 21 game winning streak, so they were definitely ahead of the rest of the league by a large margin. The Packers dont give me that impression. I'm penciling them in for a division title and the number 2 seed. Worst Case Scenario is a divisional round loss to the three seeded Atlanta in a Playoff Revenge game.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
- Best Case Scenario: Super Bowl Winners. Eagles fans expect nothing less after one of the greatest offseasons by any team in NFL History. Michael Vick continues his amazing comeback by sustaining the level of play we saw from him in 2010. With LeSean McCoy in the backfield and weapons like DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Steve Smith, and Brent Celek, the Eagles offense takes the number one spot. Defensively, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha give the Eagles the top shutdown corner in the league and one of the top 5 playmaking corners in the league. Asante Samuel's conversion to the safety position goes off without a hitch. uddenly, the Eagles have no real weaknesses on defense. Andy Reid turns in to football's version of Casey Stengel, substituting players in different defensive packages masterfully. The Eagles shake their terrible (and that's an understatement) history to finally win a Super Bowl.
- Worst Case Scenario: Michael Vick gets injured for the year after constantly having to scramble away from the rush coming from his left side. While this might seem a bit extreme, it might happen. The Eagles' O-Line (especially the left side) wet the bed in pre-season against base formations. There's no reason to expect them to get better in the regular season. Also, the Eagles could be victims of both the Heat Theory (everybody believed in us a little bit too much) and the disease of more (everybody on the offensive side of the ball wants to be number 1 and starts in-fighting. Not unlike what happened in Cincy to implode the Ocho-Housh tandem. That, and the fact that they were more washed up than Brett Favre was last year at the time. I think that bears mentioning.) Defensively, the Eagles need a defensive tackle or a linebacker to overperform, otherwise their front seven (besides the defensive end positions) isnt scaring anybody. Asante Samuel wants to go back to playing corner after he decides that he does not like safety. He starts to complain about it (This isn't far-fetched. Remember his whining after the Eagles demoted him to third corner/safety? You're telling me that can't happen again if the Eagles lose a few games in a row?) Amidst all of the chaos, the Eagles finish with a wild-card spot and get knocked out in the first round. The most likely scenario? Right in the middle. 12-4, a first round bye, and a loss to the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship Game. I'm hoping Philly fans don't break all the windows in my house after this pick.
3. New England Patriots
- Best Case Scenario: Tom Brady continues to be Tom Brady, the running game with the Law Firm and Danny Woodhead (or as Joe Theismann called him, Danny Woodcock. Deion Sanders was rolling on the ground laughing for about 5 minutes. I love those guys) finally hits its stride this year (the one thing that was missing from every great Pats team). Ocho experiences a Moss-like revival with Tom Brady. The offensive line and the defensive line improve drastically with the additions of bigger veterans to fill holes on a surprisingly non-physical team. The secondary comes in to its own this year, and Devin McCourty starts his climb up the "best corner in the league" rankings.
- Worst Case Scenario: Brady starts going the way of Peyton Manning as football studio hosts across the country worry about what's wrong with him. The running game collapses due to inconsistancies in the offemsive line. Veterans that the Patriots signed prove to be washed up, and further weakens the offensive/defensive lines. The defense holds the Pats back yet again, ranking in the bottom 5 of the league in points given up and total yards. The Pats go 10-6, losing the division to the Jets, and are ousted from the playoffs in the wild card round.
- Most Likely Scenario: Brady is still Brady, the wide receiver situation improves minimally with the addition of Ocho, and the offensive line also gets only a little better. The defense really steps it up after another year of experience (youngest defense in the league). However, they lose in the AFC Conference Championship to the Steelers.
Which reminds me.........
THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS ATLANTA FALCONS
BEGIN!!!!
Oops sorry I was thinking of Epic Rap Battles of History. My bad.
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger, the most underrated QB in the league. He's a playmaker, a leader, and a rapist. His ability to escape sacks and scramble outside the pocket is amazing and he's got a cannon arm. The guy's been to the Super Bowl before (three times) and won it twice. He's been considered a winner, a whiner, a legend, an injury risk, a seedy bar regular, and a winner again. On the other side is Matt Ryan. Not nearly as much happening with him. Game manager, cool under pressure, definitely not taking anything off the table. However, there's a huge difference between not taking anything off the table and putting things on to the table. I'll go with Roethlisberger.
- Running Backs: Two running backs of nearly equal value. Rashard Mendenhall is a powerful running back that never seems to go down on first contact (the Jets learned that the hard way in the AFC Championship Game). Turner is a nice blend of both speed and power. However, Mendenhall is definitely more consistant than Turner. Both have had troubles with injuries. Since Mendenhall is working his magic behind an infinitely more sucky offensive line, I'm giving this one to the Steelers.
- Wide Receivers: Mike Wallace against Roddy White is pretty even (Both guys are deep ball threats that can completely screw up the other team with one big catch). Hines Ward vs Julio Jones goes to Ward by a mile, although that could definitely change depending on how Julio Jones does this year. Both the Steelers and the Falcons have great depth at wide receiver. The Steelers have Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown, while the Falcons have Harry Douglas and Eric Weems. Tony Gonzalez definitely beats out Heath Miller in the tight end department. Even Gonzalez' blocking is underrated. Wide receivers go to the Falcons by a hair.
- Offensive Line: The Falcons are decent, the Steelers are horrible. Nuff' said. Advantage Falcons.
- Defense and Special Teams: Again, the difference between taking things off the table and putting things on it. The Falcons defense is good. Ray Edwards is a good pass rusher, Dunta Robinson is the biggest name among a good secondary, the defense is just good, but not great. The Steelers defense is great. The pass rush will get to Matt Ryan early and often and disrupt what the Falcons are trying to do on offense. The Falcons will come close, but the defense will be their downfall.
The Pick?
Pittsburgh Steelers: 31 Atlanta Falcons: 17
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