First off, I would like to give a very big shout-out to everybody reading this column via the scholastic play by play sports broadcasting camp mainpage, where this blog is among the three blogs of the week. I would like to thank the counselors there for supporting me and the blog as well as all the friends that I made there. I wish I would have watched Anchorman enough times to think of a quote to leave here, but I haven't. I'll just have to leave the Anchorman references to Jon Jaffe. Anyways, let's get to the picks.
EAGLES VS BILLS
Blowing a 20 point lead to the 49ers? I didn't know the Eagles suddenly played in Boston (sorry SBC Boston campers. Would it help if I said that Rug Burn Ball seems fun?). The Eagles have way too much talent on both sides of the football for another collapse to happen, but that's what we thought after the first two losses. Other teams have exploited the fatal flaw in the Eagles' defense, they are tremendously soft in between the tackles. We saw a little bit of this on their Week One win, where Steven Jackson busted off a long touchdown run before getting injured. The Eagles rank 30th in the league against the run, surrendering over 120 yards per game. Frank Gore absolutely crushed the Eagles up the middle in the final drive, finishing the day with 127 yards. The Bills blew another lead (through the first four weeks, four leads of 20 or more have been erased. The most times that has happened in an entire season before was four. If there were ever a tombstone for the four-minute drill and fundamental football, the 2011 season would be it) to the Cincinatti Bengals. Up 20-6, the Bills watched the Bengals rally back for a 23-20 win. I can't believe I just typed that sentence. Anyways, I like the Eagles' chances against one of the worst defenses in the league (25 points per game given up so far). The Eagles get back on track with a 30-17 win.
JAGUARS VS BENGALS
Have you ever had something where there was two choices and you would always pick the wrong one? That's kind of where I'm at with Cincy right now. I'm 0-4 picking games that involve the Cincinatti Bengals. At this point, I'm trying to figure out what my gut is telling me so I can go against it. My gut tells me Cincy for this one because Jacksonville is awful and the Bengals finally have some momentum, but I'm going against that advice. The Bengals are a young team that came through with a huge win last week, so you would expect a let-down facing a bad team on the road. Maurice Jones-Drew hasn't been able to get anything going as of late, and he's too good to stay quiet for this long (which is why I'm trying to get him on the cheap in my fantasy league). Expect Jones-Drew to have a big game and Gabbert to notch his first win as a pro as the Jags beat the Bengals.
TITANS VS STEELERS
Yep, I dont believe in the Steelers anymore. I just watched my AFC Super Bowl Pick get burned by Arian Foster (not really that bad until you remember that he was just coming back from a strained hamstring and Gary Kubiak told the media that he hoped to limit Foster to 15 or 20 carries. Eventually, he was willing to risk injury to his star RB just to take advantage of the success he was having). That's especially disturbing because I thought that would be the one problem that the Steelers would never have in my lifetime, a lack of physicallity (I think that's a word). The Steelers were destroyed at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and that led to big chunks of yardage for the Texans. Then we have the Titans, who are secretly pretty good. They dominated the Ravens earlier this year and Matt Hasselbeck looks like he has a chance to stay relevant for a few more years (anytime a QB starts after 40, we should call him a Favre. Can't you see some studio analyst saying "I like this kid's durability. He's a serious contender to be a Favre in 15 years"? Yep, me too.) after great games against the Browns and the Broncos (I mean, they are the Browns and Broncos, but still). Chris Johnson also looks like a threat to revive his season against a worn-down front seven. For my upset pick of the week, it's the Titans over the Steelers.
CHIEFS VS COLTS
I'm 2-7 this year picking games where both teams have under two wins. I can't even think of a good joke to make about this game. Colts win 27-17. Next.
RAIDERS VS TEXANS
This is a sleeper for Best Game of the Week status. It's also the fantasy clash of the week as Darren McFadden (the number 1 back) squares off against Arian Foster (presumed to be in the top 3 after coming back from a hamstring injury. Hopefully the trend that Foster started of posting injuries on Twitter wont last. I dont need to see groin injuries being posted online). I'm inclined to go with the Texans on this one because they finally look like a fundamentally sound team (making smart passes, generating a good push at the offensive line, everything. I think they're defense collectively generated a few pulses last game) and the Raiders, well, they're the Raiders. Texans win this game on Foster's legs by the score of 31-23.
CARDINALS VS VIKINGS
The Cardinals showed signs of life last week before their defense choked away a big fourth quarter lead against the Giants. One positive that did come out of the defeat was Beanie Wells. I can't stress how much Beanie has sucked over the past few years, but he seemed to start turning things around in the Giants game. Over 120 yards on 27 carries and three TDs is a solid day, and its downright great in comparison to the ineptitude (an SAT/pompous librarian approved word!) he has displayed over the past few years. Meanwhile, nothing seems to go right for the Minnesota Vikings. Squandering both 17 and 20 point leads, and then capping it off by losing to the Chiefs? Ouch. Carinals win 21-17.
SAINTS VS PANTHERS
I wanted to pick Carolina in this game. I really did. After all, I'm a firm believer in the Newton-Smith partnership that has blossomed in the early goings of the season. However, that would be a stupid pick. New Orleans has shown that their offense is a force to be reckoned with, even if their defense isn't on par with the rest of the league. Brees is an early nominee for MVP, and the Saints (along with the Ravens) are the team I can see standing up to the Packers in the playoffs. They have an identity and the talent to live up to it, and that's a commodity in today's NFL. Then again, you might not want to take the Saints if you're betting the spread (big favorites against Cam Newton? Not a good deal. By the way, notice how I've completely jumped on the Cam Newton bandwagon. My NFL Preview says that he has "the chance to be the biggest bust in the past decade". Now? GO CAM NEWTON!!! Although, the fact that he racked up 31(!) fantasy points against me last week had something to do with it). The Panthers have covered in every game so far this year. However, I'm picking the Saints for a 27-23 win.
SEAHAWKS VS GIANTS
The Giants are my Week 5 Eliminator Pick (I hate picking the Giants just as much as everybody else, but there are no other options for this week) by default. I hate having to pick Eliminator Challenge weeks by default and with everybody else (I always try to never go for the game that everybody is picking. There's a reason that 50,000 people don't win Eliminator Challenge), but this one seems like a lock. The Giants win by two scores. If they lose, I'm picking against them out of spite for the rest of the season.
BUCS VS 49ERS
Every week, the media looks for cute angles on the previous week's events (It doesn't just happen after Week 1!). Some of them are legitimate, most of them aren't. One of the angles that I heard was "The Bucs are the second best team in the NFC! This could be their year!" Geez, some people really need to switch to decaf. The Bucs are not the second best NFC Team. Or the third. Or the fourth. Or possibly not even the fifth. They haven't been able to play a complete game or convincingly beat a good opponent. Then again, neither have the Niners. This is a major letdown game for another young team like the Bucs. Coming off a tough Monday Night game, going to the West Coast, and playing a surprisingly frisky 49ers team? Count me in. 23-20 Niners.
CHARGERS VS BRONCOS
There isn't much hope for the Broncos anymore. After getting dismantled by the Packers, the Broncos have to trudge back home to play a traditionally unpredictable Chargers team. One thing, however, is always predictable. Check out the Chargers' previous playoff seasons. 2009 Week 7, Win against the Chiefs 37-7. 2008 Week 14, Win against the Raiders 37-7. 2007 Week 5, Win against the Broncos 41-3. In each Chargers season, they have an absolutely monster game against a terrible division opponent, usually in midseason (this has gone one for 5 or 6 years now). This feels like one of those games. Rivers is overdue for a great game. Chargers win by at least 17 (I already picked the Chargers in Eliminator. Crap).
PATRIOTS VS JETS
The one thing that I never, ever want to do is to pick against my favorite team. I did. The one thing that I would rather jump in to a shark tank than do is to make an Eliminator Challenge pick against my own team. I almost did that too. It's hard to overstate how much the Jets' offensive line sucked last week, but I'll give it a try. Sanchez drops back to pass, having had three sack-strips against him, two returned for touchdowns. There is a regular four man rush for Baltimore and, no joke, two of them CAME FREE. They didn't make a good move past the linemen. They were completely untouched as Sanchez ran away like he was fleeing the mafia as he threw the ball in to the ground. This happened with five offensive linemen. The running game hasn't been good, the offensive line has sucked, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that the Jets will win this game. The Jets' D will keep it close, but I'm wiping away tears as I pick the Pats to win this one.
PACKERS VS FALCONS
Whenever NFL Gameday shows a highlight bit of Eli Manning throwing for a touchdown, Deion Sanders yells "I BELIEVE IN ELI!!!" No, Seriously. I BELIEVE IN ELI!!!! Why is this relevant? This is what I've been yelling at the Falcons since I made them my Super Bowl Pick, only I've been yelling I DONT BELIEVE IN YOU, FALCONS!!!! I dont believe in them now any more than I did before. Bits of Denver Broncos defenders are still stuck to the bottom of Aaron Rodgers' cleat as he tore them apart for 6 TDs. Same bad defense, same great offense, same result. Packers win 37-23.
BEARS VS LIONS
I BELIEVE IN THE LIONS!!!!! It might have taken me two weeks longer than everybody else, but I finally believe in them. Facing a good team on the road, down by over 20 points, the Lions pulled it out again. I'm still shocked. Calvin Johnson is putting up the most dominating performance I've ever seen from a wide receiver in the NFL (Don't forget, I was born after Jerry Rice and Randy Moss' prime). Over the last few seasons, there has been an ongoing debate about this. Well, Andre Johnson looks good. If Randy Moss can get it together, he could be the best. Don't forget about Fitzgerald. Well the debate is over. Calvin Johnson has just settled it with 8 touchdowns in four games (the people who picked Johnson in fantasy football have to be high fiving themselves right now). And dont forget about the Lions' pass rush, now that Nick Fairley is back. Between the Bears' struggling offensive line and Jay Cutler's destructive tendencies (I love it when fans discuss their QBs like a bomb that could explode in a mushroom cloud of interceptions at any moment. Except when it's my QB. Then I hate it), this game has all the makings of a double digit win for the Lions.
Thanks for reading and dont forget to read next time for Week 6 picks. I BELIEVE IN THIS COLUMN!!!
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