NFL Week 12 Picks

After a two week hiatus of picks, I'm back. I finished a huge column on the first week and had a lot to do, so I couldn't write picks that week. Last week, Tebow's drive destroyed me (I'm still not quite over it) and I didn't feel like writing them either. However, it's time to get back to the picks. Quick disclaimer before I start the column: I don't pick the Thursday games. If I pick one game, I feel like I have to pick them all, and I don't have the time/ lack of homework needed to do that. Now that we've established that, on to the picks.

FALCONS OVER VIKINGS

I like the Vikings as a sleeper pick for next year. The defense is coming on strong, Ponder is developing in to a good quarterback, and Adrian Peterson is still a veritable monster. They absolutely could have won that Raiders game last week, but a multitude of turnovers and dumb penalties killed their chances. Now those are the Vikings that I know. Meanwhile, Atlanta played a good three quarters against the Titans before almost blowing it at the end. Since they're my Super Bowl Pick (I'll explain why in my NFL Postmortem column at the end of the season), I've gotta have faith in their ability to take care of businuess in home games like this.Falcons win 24-13.

JETS OVER BILLS

The Jets have only lost twice when I've went (2007 against Buffalo and 2010 against the eventual champ Green Bay). Let's just say that I'm not worried about this being the third time. The Jets are beginning to fall apart, but Buffalo just exploded. They rope us in to thinking they're a decent team every few years (2008 for instance), and then they implode down the stretch. Blowouts at the hands of the Jets, Cowboys, and Dolphins in the past three weeks have exposed the Bills as a facade. They may be 5-5, but they're already dead from a playoff perspective in my mind. Then again, so would the Jets if they didn't have three pushovers (Buffalo,Washington, and Kansas City) in the next few weeks. Add to the fact that Fred Jackson looks to be done for the year, and this is a 31-13 Jets win.

BENGALS OVER BROWNS

Due to the Jets' unfortunate playoff situation, I will be vehemently rooting against the Bengals for the rest of the year. It's a shame, because the Bengals are a likeable young team that has a QB with a cool nickname (Andy Dalton as the Red Rifle) and one of the most exciting wide receivers in the league (AJ Green). That said, they're no way that the Bengals blow an easy home game against a team that barely outlasted Jacksonville last week. The Browns rank 29th in total offense, and show no signs of an upward trend without Peyton Hillis (the Madden Curse strikes again!! I wonder whether the Madden Curse or the SI Cover Jinx has been more successful over the years. I'm wondering whether to be glad that Jets don't usually appear on the covers or bummed out because there isn't a single player on the team remotely exciting enough to make one.) Long story short, the Bengals should win this game handily.

TITANS OVER BUCS

A lot of things just haven't gone right for the Bucs this year. LaGarette Blount never really got rolloing until it was too late, Josh Freeman threw too many picks, and the defense couldn't even perform average, much less keep up with all of the offenses' turnovers. The Bucs took the Packers down to the wire last week, so we know how good they can be. The Titans are the exact opposite. You know you're getting a team that's pretty much as close to the word "average" as you'd ever hope to get in the NFL. They come close to beating some good teams, win handily some weeks, look like just another team in other weeks, you never know what you're getting from the Titans. I'll always pick the average team over the box of chocolates team (You never know what you're gonna get. I probably shouldn't be quoting Forrest Gump since I've never actually seen it), especially when the average team is playing at home. Titans win 20-17.

PANTHERS OVER COLTS

Can we at least say that the Panthers are the most entertaining 2-8 team that we've ever seen? What other 2-8 team do you know of has a soon to be top 10 QB and a top 5 wide receiver? I'm gonna go ahead and answer that for you; none. If the defense were just bad instead of  complete trash (allowing over 28 points per game after the team spent close to 70 million dollars resigning "vital" members of the defense. I think that the other 31 teams can agree that it was worth every penny), the Panthers could have easily been 5-5 right now. Meanwhile, the Colts are in full Luck mode. Not only do they not have the talent to consider beating another NFL team right now, they have no incentive to do so with a sure thing looming in the draft. The Panthers win 28-17.

RAMS OVER CARDINALS

Do I really have to talk about this game? No? Fantastic.

TEXANS OVER JAGUARS

I would be genuinely shocked if the Texans lose this game. I honestly don't think that the injury of Schaub will change much of anything. They have the number one defense in the league in terms of yards per game, Arian Foster is a monster, and they haven't had Andre Johnson for all this time. Can you imagine what would have happened if the whole defense, Foster, Schaub, and Johnson stayed healthy throughout the season? I'm firmly convinced that they would be undefeated if that happened. Meanwhile, the Jags are just building towards next year at this point. Remember when the Jags used to be the most exciting team in football with two great running backs and an entertaining defense (2007)? Me too. I miss those days. Fortunately, the Texans have all of that and more. This is the lock of the week, 35-10 Texans.

RAIDERS OVER BEARS

And this is what I meant in my preseason power poll about the 2010 Bears. Those Bears  possibly had the luckiest season in the past decade. No significant injuries, terrible schedule, good turnover differential, won too many close games that they could have easily lost, went 11-5 and got the 2 seed in the NFC (fairly sure we're not seeing that again), got Seattle at home in the divisional round, and nearly beating the Packers in the conference championshpis after getting every conceivable break. You knew that the Bears' luck had to swing in the other direction sometime, right? Well, this is that sometime. I kinda feel bad for them because they were having a great season without the kind of luck that they got last year, and then Caleb Hanie has to ride in and save the day. You're not gonna believe this, but I don't believe in Hanie. Meanwhile, the Raiders get to play in the worst division in football and catch the Bears at the perfect time. Sounds like a 10 point win to me.

Raiders win 20-10.

SEAHAWKS OVER REDSKINS

Can I interest you in a game between sub .500 teams with absolutely no interesting subplots whatsoever? I can't? Fantastic.

BRONCOS OVER CHARGERS

I believe in Tebow now. Not by choice. When you look at this game closely, isn't this exactly the kind of game that Tim Tebow always pulls out? A talented team that hasn't met expectations, can't finish games, and is prone to dumb turnovers and penalties faces off against the Broncos. The score is something like "13-10 Chargers" in the final three minutes. The Chargers have dominated all game, except for a special teams fumble and two picks by Rivers. To be honest, that's exactly how I expect this game to play out. And then Tebow drives the Broncos down the field for a game ending touchdown as Rich Eisen points out once again that "the standings don't have pictures on them". Has any team won in more perplexing ways than the Broncos have over the past few weeks? Has any team found more ways to lose a football game than San Diego? No and no. Broncos win 17-13.

PATS OVER EAGLES

One of the more interesting games of Week 12 is between two preseason Super Bowl Favorites. Personally, I can't think of any conceivable way that the Eagles win with Vince as the quarterback. All week long, all I heard from analysts and talk show hosts was "Here come the Eagles!" and "Should we start Vince over Vick for the rest of the year?" chatter. First of all, the Eagles would pretty much need to win out to approach the playoffs, and the Pats are hitting their stride late in the season. Second of all, here is Vince's statline from the Giants game.

Vince Young: 23-38, 258 Yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs,  69.0 QB rating

Not quite sure that warrants "starting QB" talk yet. Also, the three picks against a woeful Giants' secondary is somewhat alarming. The Eagles defense will need to play the game of its life against Brady and the Pats offense. I think it can hold Brady to a reasonable amount of yardage, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis has a field day with over 100 yard and at least two touchdowns against a physically inferior Eagles' front seven. 30-24 Pats.

STEELERS OVER CHIEFS

Palko, meet Polamalu, Harrison, and Timmons. Timmons, Harrison, and Polamalu, meet Tyler Palko.

SAINTS OVER GIANTS

 The Giants have holes all over their offense right now. The offensive line is a mess with Will Beaty out, leading to the porous run blocking given to Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs will likely be in again on Monday Night after new broke that Ahmad Bradshaw did not practice yet again, raising severe doubt about his status for Monday Night's game. Another game in which a team was caught at the perfect time. The Saints are well rested, having just come off of their bye week. Expect the Saints to come out with their best effort of the year and the Giants to come out with their worst. Saints win 38-21.

I'll be back with Week 13 next week. Hasta le Vista everybody.